haroldchorneyeconomist

Two more polls have appeared on the weekend before the historic May 2nd election which show that the NDP is closing in on the Conservatives with the gap narrowing outside of Alberta. One of them by Angus Reid is featured on the front pages of the two of the  largest circulation influential newspapers in the country Montreal’s la Presse and the Toronto Star. The headline in La Presse LE NPD GONFLÉ  À BLOC makes it clear that the New Democrats are in the process of blowing the Bloc Québecois off the electoral map of Québec with 45 % of voter intentions compared to the Bloc’s 26 %. The Liberals are way below their norm in Québec at only 16 % and the Conservatives at 13 %. If these poll numbers held at election day the NDP would sweep the vast majority of seats in Québec capturing as least as many as the Bloc in previous elections. The Liberals would hang on to a handful,  the Conservatives would lose a number of theirs as well. In the rest of the country outside of Alberta the race is much closer a contest with the NDP vote rising in B.C. to within 3 % points of the Conservatives  and to a lesser extent in Ontario placing it neck and neck with the Liberals at 27 % but well ahead of the pack in the Atlantic region with 46 % of the vote. Only in Alberta and Manitoba and Saskatchewan are the Conservatives far ahead with 67 % in Alberta and 54 % in Manitoba Saskatchewan. Nevertheless, the Liberals and the NDP will win several seats in and around Regina and Winnipeg and probably one in Edmonton.

The second poll by Ipsos for Global News has almost identical  national results as the Angus Reid poll. Their subregional numbers differ somewhat but not by much except that in B.C. they show the Liberals with higher numbers and the NDP further behind the Conservatives at 29 % versus 39 % in the Angus Reid poll.The Conservatives in B.C. are at 42 % in  both Angus Reid and Ipsos. The Liberals  are 26 % in Ipsos but only 12 % in Angus Reid. Since the error factor in these regional samples is usually greater than 6 % the results are not very reliable at the regional level.

Despite the best efforts of the Toronto Sun in traditional Fleet street tabloid style to smear the NDP leader with only two days left to election day it would seem that the New Democrats’ momentum is very likely to produce a major shift in Canadian politics on Monday. We shall soon see if the Liberals’  determined effort to save the furniture in a number of ridings across Ontario bears any fruit on election day.

Another two polls have been released a new Ekos poll and a new Nanos poll. Both polls guage political preference over the period which ended on April 27. They both show the NDP firmly in second place with 28 % (Ekos) and 30 % Nanos. These are identical results within the margin of error of the polls. The Liberals receive 22 % and the leading Conservatives receive 35 % in Ekos and 37 % in Nanos. It is unlikely if these results occurred on election day that the Conservatives would win a majority but vote splits might deliver such a result if the three way splits worked in a very precise way that consistently benefitted the Conservatives. But I think that is unlikely. A more likely result if these numbers are accurately reflected in the actual vote would be the Conservatives falling short of a majority by a greater margin than last election. The real big change would be the movement of the NDP into the role of official opposition displacing the Liberals and making an historically important shift in Canadian politics. Since they appear to be a party that may receive as much as 30 % of the vote their opponents ought to be a little more cautious in the kinds of intemperate language they use when they describe their platform and policies. Close to a third of our electorate appear to support the NDP

New Democrats and their parent party , the CCF, have governed and governed well at the Provincial level for almost 70 years. At various times in our history they have been the government of B.C., Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Nova Scotia. They have drawn and continue to draw substantial support from the poor, the working class,the underdog, the professional classes, many members of the intellectual and artistic community ,the teaching profession, the trade union movement and many of the people that have made a very critical contribution to our society.

I am not a member of the NDP I am a Liberal and I don’t agree with a number of their policies, particularly their approach to Québec . But to dismiss them as amateurs and dogmatic socialists is just plain wrong. My parents, for example who were life long supporters of this party would be understandably insulted by such false rhetoric. The New Democrats like social democratic parties in Europe and elsewhere in their own societies play an important role in Canadian society in offering an important alternative approach to the democratic management of our economic system . They have played a major role in humanizing capitalism, establishing medicare and spreading civil rights and social justice. If you demonize them you are demonizing an important aspect of ourselves and Canadian values , in general.

Two new polls have been released  one by Forum and the other by Angus Reid which appear to confirm the startling result first revealed by an earlier Ekos poll which placed the NDP in the lead in Québec and second after the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals. Both of these polls also show the NDP ahead in Québec and also gaining support in B.C. and Ontario and doing well in Edmonton. The Angus Reid poll has the Conservatives at 35%, the New Democrats at 30 %, the Liberals at 22%, the Bloc at 7 and the Greens at 5 %. The Forum poll has the Conservatives at 34 %, the New Democrats at 31%, the Liberals at 22, the Bloc at 7  and the Greens at 5. So the gap between the NDP and the Conservatives appears to be narrowing somewhat making it less likely if these results held up on election day for the Conservatives to win any sort of majority. Seat breakdowns are notoriously hard to predict in three way races in such a regionally diverse country but the Forum poll according to some observers suggests that the Conservatives on this result would end up with 137 seats, the NDP 108, the Liberals 60 and the Bloc 3. After the shock had worn off the Conservatives would have to compromise substantially on a number of policies and appointments to maintain confidence. Failing that, the Liberals and the New Democrats would if they are sensible seek to hammer out a compromise based on a pragmatic and progressive weighing of appropriate policies that would permit either a prolonged minority government or a more formal coalition to guarantee a continued solid recovery, lower unemployment, more investment in equal opportunities in education and training, improved health care and access to family practitioners, improved pensions,fair taxation and a foreign policy in keeping with core Canadian values.

The latest Ekos poll still to be confirmed by other polls shows the NDP has vaulted into first place in Québec with 39 % of the likely vote and 2nd place throughout the country with 28 % of the likely vote . In this poll in Québec the Bloc has 25 %, the Conservatives 15 % and the Liberals 13 %. This places the NDP according to Ekos seat projections in the enviable position of being poised to win as many as 100 seats on May 2nd, including a large block of more than 50 in Québec. The Conservatives would be reduced to 131 seats, the Liberals would hang on to 62 and the Bloc drop to a mere rump of 14 or 15 seats. In such circumstances an NDP Liberal coalition would make sense if the Conservatives were to fail the test of winning the confidence of the House. The combined parties would command a clear majority in the House without the support of the Bloc.  One poll does not an election make but if its trend is confirmed by other polls then election night should be very exciting indeed. Once the dust cleared however there would be some serious questions about the extent of the NDP’s playing footsie with Québec nationalism, saying one thing in Quebec to the nationalists and being evasive about it in the rest of the country, as well as about its taxation and defense policies that would lead to certain tensions between some Liberals and some New Democrats. On the other hand there are plenty of places where there could be constructive agreement on policies and values and Canadians could be guaranteed a productive and stable progressive government. In the meantime, the Liberals will campaign hard as they must to ensure the strongest possible share of the vote for their cause and likewise the other parties. Democracy and democratic competition and widespread grass roots participation is alive and well in this election a fact we should all celebrate.

British columbia has traditionally been a ferocious battleground between the Conservatives  and former Social Creditors and reformers on the one hand and the New democrats on the other. The Liberal party is often squeezed between these two forces although it usually manages to capture a few seats. This election is likely to be very similar. In the 2008 election the Conservatives won 22 seats, the NDP 9 and the Liberals 5. Thirteen of these were won by margins of less than 10 % so the election in B.C. should prove to be an exciting finish to the results on May 2nd. Three of these were won by the NDP with the Conservatives coming 2nd. The shift in this election in B.C. is toward the NDP so unless the the Liberal vote collapses which is unlikely these seats will probably remain with the New Democrats.

Of the ten others, five were won by the Liberals. So far the polls show that the Liberal vote in B.C. is roughly comparable to the 19 % it achieved in 2008 but the New Democrats are trending slightly higher in B.C. so it is possible that some of these Liberal seats will be won by either the Conservatives or even the NDP if the votes were to shift in sufficient number away from the Liberals to the NDP.The other five seats were won by the Conservatives and some of them may well transfer to the New Democrats but two of them are more vulnerable to falling to the Liberals if the Conservative vote were to soften. But so far in B.C. this is not happening.

With the polls showing a surge for the NDP in Québec and B.C. what impact might a rise in the NDP vote have in Manitoba and Saskatchewan ? There are two seats won by a margin of less than 10 % in Manitoba and both of them are in Winnipeg. One Winnipeg South Centre  was won by Anita Neville of the Liberal party who is generally well regarded in Winnipeg by a margin of  6% over her Conservative rival. If the Conservative vote increased slightly and the NDP captured a portion of the Liberal vote this seat could fall to the Conservatives but I would still bet on Neville holding the seat. The other seat Elmwood Transcona was won by the NDP over their Conservative opponent by a margin of 5%. This could be a close race but if the national trend to the NDP holds in Winnipeg then the NDP should hang onto the seat.

In Saskatchewan last time the Conservatives swept every seat except one won by Ralph Goodale in Wascana by 11.5 %. This time his Conservative opponent is running a strong campaign and the NDP have a solid candidate who appeals to young people so this could also be a horse race. But again I would bet on Goodale holding the seat unless the swing to the NDP is strong enough to allow the Conservatives to win the seat. The only other two close races were :Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar where last time the Conservatives won by only 1 % over the NDP. This will be a close match with the NDP favoured to win the riding if the swing materializes in Saskatchewan; and Palliser where last time the Conservatives won the riding over the NDP by a margin of 10.2 %. What happens here will be be determined by whatever swing materializes. Looking at the latest polls I would bet on the NDP winning the riding although the regional sample size is quite small and the margin of error large.

An Ipsos poll and and Ekos Poll taken April 18-20 appear to show the NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals nationally but within the margin of error or tied with them and definitely ahead in the Québec race.

The results are as follows. Ipsos :Conservatives 43%,NDP 24, Liberals 21, Bloc 6, Greens 4.   In Québec the NDP leads at 28 %, the Bloc next at 27 % followed by the Conservatives at 24  and the Liberals at 20.

Ekos:Conservatives 34 %, Liberals 25, NDP 25,  Bloc 7, Greens 8.  In Québec  NDP 31%, Bloc 28, Conservatives 19, Liberals 17, Greens 7.

If these polls reflect the actual vote on election day then these are happy days for the New Democrats who look poised  to capture a number of seats in Québec on election day from the Bloc Québecois whose own seat numbers will be dramatically reduced.The Liberals will be much less pleased although their solid vote in Toronto, western Montreal , parts of Vancouver and Winnipeg,and the Atlantic region will still ensure them a large block of seats in Parliament.

At the national level however it is not clear if the increase in strength for the NDP will translate into a much reduced Conservative minority or a narrow Conservative majority depending upon how the vote splits.  The polls differ by a larger than the margin of error difference in the share of the vote going to the Conservatives. One of the other  recent polls which showed the NDP surge was based on adjusted sample of the on line focus group that the polling company has assembled. For that reason it is not as reliable as a true scientific sample.

In a previous post I analysed the likely consequences of a swing in the votes from the Bloc to the other parties in Québec and suggested that only a small number of seats were likely candidates for a shift from the Bloc to the Liberals, and an even smaller number of seats that might change hands from the Liberals to the NDP or Conservatives. Lets now extend the analysis to Ontario.The following ridings were won last election with less than 10% margin of difference between the winning candidate and the candidate of the party that finished second.

Riding                     winning party             2nd party                  margin

1.)Ajax Pickering             Liberal                 Conservative                  6.6%

2.)Beaches East York              Liberal                 NDP                        8.9

3.)Bramlea Gore Malton        Liberal         Conservative                 8.0

4.)Brampton Springdale          Liberal         Conservative                1.7

5.) Brampton West                     Liberal        Conservative               0.4

6.) Don Valley West                  Liberal           Conservative              5.6

7.) Eglington Lawrence             Liberal          Conservative               4.7

8.) Guelph                                    Liberal          Conservative               3.0

9.) Haldiman Norfolk                Conservative   Liberal                       8.4

10.) Kenora                                    Conservative   Liberal                        8.9

11.) Kingston and Islands            Liberal           Conservative                6.6

12.) Kitchner centre                     Conservative     Liberal                         0.8

13.) Kitchner Waterloo                Conservative     Liberal                          0.1

14.) London North Centre            Liberal            Conservative                  6.1

15.) London West                         Conservative   Liberal                              3.7

16.) Missisauga Erindale             Conservative Liberal                                 0.7

17.)Missisauga South                   Liberal    Conservative                             4.6

18.) Oak Ridges Markham          Conservative  Liberal                                o.7

19.)Oakville                                   Conservative     Liberal                              9.9

20.)Oshawa                                    Conservative   NDP                                   6.7

21.)Ottawa Orleans                       Conservative Liberal                                6.1

22.) Ottawa West Nepean             Conservative Liberal;                             8.9%

23.) Parkdale high park                  Liberal        NDP                                     7.0

24.)Sault Ste.Marie                          NDP            Conservative                      2.7

25.)Sudbury                                       NDP              Liberal                              4.9

26.)Thornhill                                     Conservative  Liberal                           9.8

27.Trinity Spadina                              NDP     Liberal                                        5.8

28.Welland                                          NDP     Conserv/ Lib.                             0.6/4.5

29.York Centre                                    Lib.       Conserv.                                     5.5

So in Ontario there are 29 ridings where the the winning party defeated the second party by a margin of less than ten percent. In one of these the third party was also within less than 10 % of the victor , the riding of Welland.

In 13 of these the Liberals came first. In 4 of them the NDP came first and in the remaining 12 ridings the Conservatives came first. So the nature of the swing in Ontario is critical. If it is from the Conservatives to the Liberals or the NDP then at maximum there are 12 possible switches to the opposition parties. If the swing is not uniform, in other words in some ridings it is from the Conservatives to the Liberals or NDP in others the other direction then very few net differences will be possible. But if the swing is more uniform but less than 5 % then some of the 12 might switch from the Conservatives. There are 6 that are more likely in such circumstances. They are Kitchener Centre and Kitchener Waterloo, London Centre, Oakridge Markham, Oshawa and Ottawa Orleans. On the other hand there are three ridings the  two in Brampton and Guelph where the Liberals would be vulnerable to a small shift in the vote to the Conservatives or from a shift from the Liberals to the NDP.

The latest polls which have however a high margin of error for regions show that in Ontario the expressed preference  for the Conservatives seems stable at about at the level of 39 % that they scored in Ontario last election. The Liberal expressed preference is slightly higher but well within the margin of error trending at about 3 to 4 % points above the last election where they scored 34 % and the NDP is trending a bit below their 2008 result of 18 % except in a two very recent  polls where they score 24 % in one poll and 25 % in another..

Hence if current trends continue there is not likely to be a large shift in the seat  outcome in Ontario. The Liberals might gain several more seats but the Conservatives could just as easily hang on to almost all of their current ones and even gain a couple of new ones from the Liberals. the New Democrats will probably hang on to most,if not all of their seats, possibly winning several more since only 4 of them are vulnerable to a shift in the vote and they themselves ran second in close contests in 3 ridings. The Conservatives in the 2008 election won 51 seats in Ontario, the Liberals 38 and the NDP 17.

When I was a student in Britain and during subsequent visits there I was always fascinated at election time when the BBC’s great journalist Peter  Snow during the election broadcasts would use the Canadian expatriate, the late  Robert Mackenzie who had a distinguished career at the LSE as a Professor of Political Science to analyse the swing factor in the election to predict which seats were likely to fall to the party in ascendancy.

So for example if the swing to Labour were of the order of 5 % they would identify which constituencies based on the last election Labour had come second where the margin of victory  of the Tories was less than 10 % . They then, in a rather impressive ritual, would list these marginal seats and show how many were going to fall to Labour(or vice versa). It was an impressive election spectacle that many viewers enjoyed. Well, we can of course use the same technique in analysing possible election results in Canada by listing all the marginal seats and then calculating the likely result assuming that the swing is consistent and predicting that in the vote shift away from the party that won last time, the vote is highly likely to go to the party that ran second. Of course , this is not always true and some adjustment must be made for new realities and conditions on the ground.

If we adopt this technique in Québec there are some 18 seats where the margin of victory was under 10 %.The Bloc won 11 of them. In 7 of them the second party was the Liberal party. In one of the other Bloc victories the NDP ran second and in the three others the Conservatives came second.

In this election based on the most recent polling the swing appears to be away from the Bloc and toward, so far, the NDP and to a lesser extent the Greens. The Liberal vote is down slightly from last time and the Bloc vote down by as much as 5 % points, and the Conservative vote slightly higher.

So which are these key marginal ridings and what is likely to happen based on these assumptions holding true on election night. Also of course we are aware of the possibility that voters who desert a party may simply stay home and other voters who did not vote last time might  take their place or not which of course can skew the analysis.

Quebec marginals where the Bloc is the incumbent and either Conservatives (C) or Liberals (L) or NDP (N) ran second. The margin of victory in percentage terms is also given.

1. Abitibi- Baie James- Nunavik- Eeyou (C)  9.3 %

2. Ahuntsic      (L)  0.9%

3. Alfred Pellan (L)  9.5 %

4. Brome Missisquoi (L) 2.4%

5. Chicoutimi Le Fjord (C)  6.4 %

6. Gatineau  (N)  3.1 %

7.Jeanne Le Ber (L)  2.6 %

8.Laval (L)  9.7 %

9. Louis Hébert (C) 8.0 %

10. Pontiac (L) 8.5 %

11. Saint Lambert (L)  9.1 %

So the absolute maximum that the Liberals could capture is 7 additional seats plus a long shot in Outremont against the popular New Democrat Thomas Mulcair  where the swing from the Bloc to the NDP would work against them .But if their vote is slightly less and the swing less than 5 % their likely gain might be 3-4 additional seats at best. The NDP seem to be well placed to hold on to Outremont and perhaps win an additional seat in Gatineau. The Conservatives have only 2 additional plausible seats if the swing to them is 5 % points. There are 5 other seats which could be classed as marginals but in 2 of them the Liberals are the incumbent and the Bloc the second party so a switch is less likely in these . In the other three one was won by the independent André Arthur and the Bloc came second. In Brossard La Prairie the Liberals won  by only 0.1 % and the Bloc came second and in Papineau Justin Trudeau the son of former Prime Minister Pierre ElliotTrudeau and Margaret Sinclair won the riding for the Liberals over the Bloc by a margin of 2.8 %. These two are two close to call but I think the Liberals are likely to win in Papineau.

The French language debate was a very interesting debate in some ways superior to the English language debate because the issue of national unity was debated in very revealing ways, and the issues of unemployment,poverty and social policy received a better airing than in the English language debate., Was there a clear winner? No. But one has to say that once again Jack Layton did very well. Michael Ignatieff also did well on the issue of national unity in particular and in scolding Gilles Duceppe for still being obsessed with the constitution when there was very little interest in constitutional questions in 2011 when economic concerns were paramount.

Duceppe had however a good comeback which is very well documented in Quebec. Things can change very quickly. Since the P.Q. can easily become once again the government of Quebec in one or two years and it remains committed to achieving sovereignty this issue can become a hot one again.The debate on this issue revealed the pitfalls of the deux nations strategy that each of the federalist leaders in one way or the other  have signed onto. When you say that Quebec is a nation, its leadership expects and will demand all the trappings of a nation state and that will not go down well in English speaking Canada. Although his French is very serviceable, Stephen Harper’s effort to play the role of the open for business Prime Minister quietly going about his work left him largely on the sidelines during the debate. As such, I don’t believe he accomplished much in advancing the Conservative cause in Quebec. Gilles Duceppe defended his turf reasonably well but I suspect the debate might weaken his hold somewhat on certain Bloc voters who might desert the Bloc for the NDP. The Liberals probably held their own and Michael Ignatieff will be viewed more favourably than before the debate, although distrust of the Liberals post Gomery and the Provincial Liberal government’s unpopularity means they have a steep hill to to climb to regain their previous  popularity in Quebec.