With the polls showing a surge for the NDP in Québec and B.C. what impact might a rise in the NDP vote have in Manitoba and Saskatchewan ? There are two seats won by a margin of less than 10 % in Manitoba and both of them are in Winnipeg. One Winnipeg South Centre was won by Anita Neville of the Liberal party who is generally well regarded in Winnipeg by a margin of 6% over her Conservative rival. If the Conservative vote increased slightly and the NDP captured a portion of the Liberal vote this seat could fall to the Conservatives but I would still bet on Neville holding the seat. The other seat Elmwood Transcona was won by the NDP over their Conservative opponent by a margin of 5%. This could be a close race but if the national trend to the NDP holds in Winnipeg then the NDP should hang onto the seat.
In Saskatchewan last time the Conservatives swept every seat except one won by Ralph Goodale in Wascana by 11.5 %. This time his Conservative opponent is running a strong campaign and the NDP have a solid candidate who appeals to young people so this could also be a horse race. But again I would bet on Goodale holding the seat unless the swing to the NDP is strong enough to allow the Conservatives to win the seat. The only other two close races were :Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar where last time the Conservatives won by only 1 % over the NDP. This will be a close match with the NDP favoured to win the riding if the swing materializes in Saskatchewan; and Palliser where last time the Conservatives won the riding over the NDP by a margin of 10.2 %. What happens here will be be determined by whatever swing materializes. Looking at the latest polls I would bet on the NDP winning the riding although the regional sample size is quite small and the margin of error large.