Swingable seats in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

With the polls showing a surge for the NDP in Québec and B.C. what impact might a rise in the NDP vote have in Manitoba and Saskatchewan ? There are two seats won by a margin of less than 10 % in Manitoba and both of them are in Winnipeg. One Winnipeg South Centre  was won by Anita Neville of the Liberal party who is generally well regarded in Winnipeg by a margin of  6% over her Conservative rival. If the Conservative vote increased slightly and the NDP captured a portion of the Liberal vote this seat could fall to the Conservatives but I would still bet on Neville holding the seat. The other seat Elmwood Transcona was won by the NDP over their Conservative opponent by a margin of 5%. This could be a close race but if the national trend to the NDP holds in Winnipeg then the NDP should hang onto the seat.

In Saskatchewan last time the Conservatives swept every seat except one won by Ralph Goodale in Wascana by 11.5 %. This time his Conservative opponent is running a strong campaign and the NDP have a solid candidate who appeals to young people so this could also be a horse race. But again I would bet on Goodale holding the seat unless the swing to the NDP is strong enough to allow the Conservatives to win the seat. The only other two close races were :Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar where last time the Conservatives won by only 1 % over the NDP. This will be a close match with the NDP favoured to win the riding if the swing materializes in Saskatchewan; and Palliser where last time the Conservatives won the riding over the NDP by a margin of 10.2 %. What happens here will be be determined by whatever swing materializes. Looking at the latest polls I would bet on the NDP winning the riding although the regional sample size is quite small and the margin of error large.


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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