British columbia has traditionally been a ferocious battleground between the Conservatives and former Social Creditors and reformers on the one hand and the New democrats on the other. The Liberal party is often squeezed between these two forces although it usually manages to capture a few seats. This election is likely to be very similar. In the 2008 election the Conservatives won 22 seats, the NDP 9 and the Liberals 5. Thirteen of these were won by margins of less than 10 % so the election in B.C. should prove to be an exciting finish to the results on May 2nd. Three of these were won by the NDP with the Conservatives coming 2nd. The shift in this election in B.C. is toward the NDP so unless the the Liberal vote collapses which is unlikely these seats will probably remain with the New Democrats.
Of the ten others, five were won by the Liberals. So far the polls show that the Liberal vote in B.C. is roughly comparable to the 19 % it achieved in 2008 but the New Democrats are trending slightly higher in B.C. so it is possible that some of these Liberal seats will be won by either the Conservatives or even the NDP if the votes were to shift in sufficient number away from the Liberals to the NDP.The other five seats were won by the Conservatives and some of them may well transfer to the New Democrats but two of them are more vulnerable to falling to the Liberals if the Conservative vote were to soften. But so far in B.C. this is not happening.