Swingable seats in British Columbia

British columbia has traditionally been a ferocious battleground between the Conservatives  and former Social Creditors and reformers on the one hand and the New democrats on the other. The Liberal party is often squeezed between these two forces although it usually manages to capture a few seats. This election is likely to be very similar. In the 2008 election the Conservatives won 22 seats, the NDP 9 and the Liberals 5. Thirteen of these were won by margins of less than 10 % so the election in B.C. should prove to be an exciting finish to the results on May 2nd. Three of these were won by the NDP with the Conservatives coming 2nd. The shift in this election in B.C. is toward the NDP so unless the the Liberal vote collapses which is unlikely these seats will probably remain with the New Democrats.

Of the ten others, five were won by the Liberals. So far the polls show that the Liberal vote in B.C. is roughly comparable to the 19 % it achieved in 2008 but the New Democrats are trending slightly higher in B.C. so it is possible that some of these Liberal seats will be won by either the Conservatives or even the NDP if the votes were to shift in sufficient number away from the Liberals to the NDP.The other five seats were won by the Conservatives and some of them may well transfer to the New Democrats but two of them are more vulnerable to falling to the Liberals if the Conservative vote were to soften. But so far in B.C. this is not happening.


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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