An Ipsos poll and and Ekos Poll taken April 18-20 appear to show the NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals nationally but within the margin of error or tied with them and definitely ahead in the Québec race.
The results are as follows. Ipsos :Conservatives 43%,NDP 24, Liberals 21, Bloc 6, Greens 4. In Québec the NDP leads at 28 %, the Bloc next at 27 % followed by the Conservatives at 24 and the Liberals at 20.
Ekos:Conservatives 34 %, Liberals 25, NDP 25, Bloc 7, Greens 8. In Québec NDP 31%, Bloc 28, Conservatives 19, Liberals 17, Greens 7.
If these polls reflect the actual vote on election day then these are happy days for the New Democrats who look poised to capture a number of seats in Québec on election day from the Bloc Québecois whose own seat numbers will be dramatically reduced.The Liberals will be much less pleased although their solid vote in Toronto, western Montreal , parts of Vancouver and Winnipeg,and the Atlantic region will still ensure them a large block of seats in Parliament.
At the national level however it is not clear if the increase in strength for the NDP will translate into a much reduced Conservative minority or a narrow Conservative majority depending upon how the vote splits. The polls differ by a larger than the margin of error difference in the share of the vote going to the Conservatives. One of the other recent polls which showed the NDP surge was based on adjusted sample of the on line focus group that the polling company has assembled. For that reason it is not as reliable as a true scientific sample.