Two polls show NDP surge in Québec will it hold on election day?

An Ipsos poll and and Ekos Poll taken April 18-20 appear to show the NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals nationally but within the margin of error or tied with them and definitely ahead in the Québec race.

The results are as follows. Ipsos :Conservatives 43%,NDP 24, Liberals 21, Bloc 6, Greens 4.   In Québec the NDP leads at 28 %, the Bloc next at 27 % followed by the Conservatives at 24  and the Liberals at 20.

Ekos:Conservatives 34 %, Liberals 25, NDP 25,  Bloc 7, Greens 8.  In Québec  NDP 31%, Bloc 28, Conservatives 19, Liberals 17, Greens 7.

If these polls reflect the actual vote on election day then these are happy days for the New Democrats who look poised  to capture a number of seats in Québec on election day from the Bloc Québecois whose own seat numbers will be dramatically reduced.The Liberals will be much less pleased although their solid vote in Toronto, western Montreal , parts of Vancouver and Winnipeg,and the Atlantic region will still ensure them a large block of seats in Parliament.

At the national level however it is not clear if the increase in strength for the NDP will translate into a much reduced Conservative minority or a narrow Conservative majority depending upon how the vote splits.  The polls differ by a larger than the margin of error difference in the share of the vote going to the Conservatives. One of the other  recent polls which showed the NDP surge was based on adjusted sample of the on line focus group that the polling company has assembled. For that reason it is not as reliable as a true scientific sample.


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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