Two new polls place NDP above 30 % and Conservatives 34 to 35 %: gap may be closing in final days.

Two new polls have been released  one by Forum and the other by Angus Reid which appear to confirm the startling result first revealed by an earlier Ekos poll which placed the NDP in the lead in Québec and second after the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals. Both of these polls also show the NDP ahead in Québec and also gaining support in B.C. and Ontario and doing well in Edmonton. The Angus Reid poll has the Conservatives at 35%, the New Democrats at 30 %, the Liberals at 22%, the Bloc at 7 and the Greens at 5 %. The Forum poll has the Conservatives at 34 %, the New Democrats at 31%, the Liberals at 22, the Bloc at 7  and the Greens at 5. So the gap between the NDP and the Conservatives appears to be narrowing somewhat making it less likely if these results held up on election day for the Conservatives to win any sort of majority. Seat breakdowns are notoriously hard to predict in three way races in such a regionally diverse country but the Forum poll according to some observers suggests that the Conservatives on this result would end up with 137 seats, the NDP 108, the Liberals 60 and the Bloc 3. After the shock had worn off the Conservatives would have to compromise substantially on a number of policies and appointments to maintain confidence. Failing that, the Liberals and the New Democrats would if they are sensible seek to hammer out a compromise based on a pragmatic and progressive weighing of appropriate policies that would permit either a prolonged minority government or a more formal coalition to guarantee a continued solid recovery, lower unemployment, more investment in equal opportunities in education and training, improved health care and access to family practitioners, improved pensions,fair taxation and a foreign policy in keeping with core Canadian values.


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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