Winds of change blowing in Canadian election NDP vaults into 2nd place first place in Québec

The latest Ekos poll still to be confirmed by other polls shows the NDP has vaulted into first place in Québec with 39 % of the likely vote and 2nd place throughout the country with 28 % of the likely vote . In this poll in Québec the Bloc has 25 %, the Conservatives 15 % and the Liberals 13 %. This places the NDP according to Ekos seat projections in the enviable position of being poised to win as many as 100 seats on May 2nd, including a large block of more than 50 in Québec. The Conservatives would be reduced to 131 seats, the Liberals would hang on to 62 and the Bloc drop to a mere rump of 14 or 15 seats. In such circumstances an NDP Liberal coalition would make sense if the Conservatives were to fail the test of winning the confidence of the House. The combined parties would command a clear majority in the House without the support of the Bloc.  One poll does not an election make but if its trend is confirmed by other polls then election night should be very exciting indeed. Once the dust cleared however there would be some serious questions about the extent of the NDP’s playing footsie with Québec nationalism, saying one thing in Quebec to the nationalists and being evasive about it in the rest of the country, as well as about its taxation and defense policies that would lead to certain tensions between some Liberals and some New Democrats. On the other hand there are plenty of places where there could be constructive agreement on policies and values and Canadians could be guaranteed a productive and stable progressive government. In the meantime, the Liberals will campaign hard as they must to ensure the strongest possible share of the vote for their cause and likewise the other parties. Democracy and democratic competition and widespread grass roots participation is alive and well in this election a fact we should all celebrate.


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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