What an incredible last eight months

I last posted something on my site other than a course outline more than six months ago. I felt a long period of reflection was necessary for me as the amazing state of the world and North America in particular swirled around us all. In the U.S. the shocking election of Donald Trump was a lot to absorb. Given his style of governing, the sense of chaos and anomie in the world has grown. Our close American neighbours, friends and family in many cases, seem to be going through a kind of nervous breakdown, although some of the turmoil has been inflicted from outside by the evil forces of terrorism and the traditional strains of cold war style politics and talk of war and the craziness of some world leaders. As someone who lived through the Cuban missile crisis and the daily threat of nuclear war in the early 1960s as a teenager in high school I and all my generation know very well the terror and panic that that threat unleashed. The absurd ritual of preparing for a nuclear attack by crouching down under our desks and saying goodbye to our friends at the end of the school day wondering if we would ever see one another again cannot be forgotten.It is therefore very sad to see the return of such anxieties in the twenty first century some 55 years later.The rise of economic and political nationalism in the US and the frightening appearance of neo Nazi anti-semitism,anti LGBTQ hysteria and racist bigotry extremists in North America is a horrible development which most people rightly condemn.

On the economic front the neo cons and dogmatic monetarists at our central bank continue to push prematurely for higher interest rates when the extremely low inflation rate does not justify it. Unemployment while reduced from the levels of the last great crisis is still above 6 % in Canada. It could and should be lower. The Trump administration has succeeded in reopening the NAFTA trade deal in the hope that they can win major trade concessions. It may well be fair and possible to reduce the American trade deficit without excessively damaging the Canadian economy but our negotiators need to very careful not to be stampeded. Given the nature of globalization and the pressure to reduce real wages of all workers by overly aggressive corporate behaviour we need to work on reforming the trade model to bring it up to date with globalization and still make it compatible with a Keynes inspired full employment model with a just and fair distribution of the benefits of fair trade. More on this in the near future.

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Poli 600 2017 course outline (under construction)

Poli 600 winter 2017
Professor Harold Chorney

Policy and the Governmental Process in Canada

We will be exploring in a series of seminars led by class members as well as myself the process by which policy is developed and implemented in Canada,the actual substance of policy and the nature of the policy debates, principally at the Federal level but also provincially and at the metropolitan level. We shall also focus on the role of the PMO, the privy council, the Dept. of F inance and the Bank of Canada and the policy shaping institiutions of the private financial community, the commercial banks and trade unions and community groups and think tanks and media. Here we will be guided by the excellent work of the Acadian political scientist , author of Governing from the Centre ,Donald Savoie. Savoie argues quite persuasively that there has been over the past decades an enormous concentration of power at the prime ministerial centre of federal power. It is also clear that parallel developments have likely occurred at the provincial level when comparing the powers at the disposition of a provincial premier. In addition to Savoie we will also draw upon Lydia Miljan Public Policy in Canada:An Introduction, Oxford University Press,2012 and Mario Seccareccia and Hassan Bougrine eds. Introducing Macroeconomic Analysis:Issues,Questions and Competing Views,2010 Edmond Montgomery Publications. In addition all students should have available a basic text in Canadian politics. For example Eric Mintz, Livianna Tossutti and Christopher Dunn Canada’s Politics:Democracy, Diversity and Good Government, 3rd edition or R.Jackson&D.Jackson Canadian Government and Politics in Transition. The economic circumstances that followed the crash and prolonged slow recovery from it has also placed special strains on the financing of policy initiatives. We will also explore this in the context of Keynesian approaches versus monetarist ones. Here papers and posts on my web site haroldchorneyeconomist.com , some selected Keynesian literature including a work on macro-economics and policy edited by Mario Seccareccia and Hassan Bougrine, Introducing Macroeconomic Analysis:Issues Question and competing Views will be helpful.

Texts:
Donald Savoie, Governing From the Centre:The Concentration of Power in Canadian Politics, University of Toronto press, 1999.
M.Seccareccia & Hassan Bougrine, Macroeconomic Analysis:Issues, questions and competing ViewsEdmond Montgomery, 2010.
Lydia Miljan Public Policy in Canada:An Introduction, Oxford University Press,2012

Grades: The grade will be based on the following components: Preparation and presentation of a seminar topic in class 25 % Each presenter will also provide the class and myself with a 4-5 page synopsis of the presentation including a short bibliography.
A term essay due in class the second week in March following the break. The essay should be focused on a particular area of policy and policy making , carefully researched and with an extensive bibliography, 20-25 pp. in length. 30 %
Class participation 10 % Final exam 35 %

Topics:

1. Introduction and overview, discussion of seminar presentations. The changing context, the Trump Trudeau era. The end of free trade ? The limits of globalization . Policy contagion from the U.S. Opportunities and risks.

2. Globalization, Markets and Government.

Readings:Seccareccia+Bougrine, ch. 1, The Market system and the Public Sector:What Role for the State ? ;85 Adam Harmes, The Return of the State:protestors, power brokers and the New global Compromise, pp.1-85; Harold Chorney, Rediscovering Keynes and the Origins of Quantitative Easing; Michael Howlett et al, introduction. Donald Savoie , pp.1-45. Ha-Joon Chang, Bad Samaritans:The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret history of Capitalism. L.Miljan, Public Policy pp1-50
Miljan pp.51-105
3. Policy Making, power and democracy:Readings, Grace Skogstad, Who governs? Who should Govern? Political Authority and Legitimacy in Canada in the Twenty-first Century Canadian Journal of Political Science.36:5(2003), 955-973 EJ via Clues. Andrew Harmes,the return of the state pp.53-85. Harold Chorney and Phil Hansen , Toward a Humanist Political Economy, pp.40-100. Savoie, pp.1-108.4.

4. The Political Executive, Prime Minister and the Cabinet Savoie; Jonathon Malloy, The Executive and Parliament in Canada The Journal of Legislative Studies 10:2(2004) 206-217

5. The role of central agencies, the Department of Finance, Treasury Board and the PMO. Savoie. Robert Bryce, Maturing in Hard Times; Savoie, pp 156-192.Miljan pp 124-161 ;Seccareccia pp 1-32 ;pp.177-196.

6. Economic policy after the crash Readings Harold Chorney , The Deficit Hysteria and the Current Crisis; The Power of Reason and the Legacy of Keynes in Toward a Humanist Political Economy pp.102-134;Alan Blinder, After the Music Stopped:the Financial Crisis, the Response and the work Ahead; Joseph Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality; Free Fall; Paul Krugman, End this Depression Now; Harold Chorney website , Revisiting deficit hysteria Labour Le Travail, 2004. Joseph Stiglitz, Free Fall.

7. The Bank of Canada, monetary, exchange rate and trade policy. Seccareccia & Bougrine, pp 33-49, 149-239., pp.243- 340. Michael Hart, A Trading Nation:Canadian Trade Policy from Colonization to Globalization

8. Natural resources and environmental policy and technological innovation, Herman Daly, The Economics of sustainable development; Centre for the Advancement of the steady state Economy; E.J. Mishan, The Costs of Economic Growth; http://www.technologyreview.com/news/533981/low-oil-prices-mean-keystone-pipeline-makes-no-sense/ MIT Technology Review.

9. Health care policy and Federal transfers. Colleen Fuller, Caring for Profit.Miljan pp185-210

10. Foreign policy and defense. Andrew Cohen, While Canada Slept.How We lost our Place in the World, Mclleland&Stewart, Lloyd Axworthy, Navigating a New World.further readings tba.

11. Immigration and Demographic policy readings tba

12. Social policy and the problem of poverty and inequality. Thomas Piketty, Capital in the twenty-first century. Seccareccia&Bougrine, pp.329-358.Stiglitz, Miljan pp.162-185.

13. Urban policy making:Managing Canadian metropolises.Intergovernmental relations. Readings: Alan Cairns,The governments and societies of Canadian Federalism, Canadian Journal of Political science 4(1977), 695-725 (EJ) ; David Cameron& Richard Simeon, intergovernmental Relations in Canada:The emergence of collaborative Federalism, Publius, The journal of Federalism 32(2002),49-71. (EJ) and further reading tba.

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Poli 489 course outline under construction winter 2017

Poli 489 The political economy of inequality Course outline (under construction)
Professor Harold Chorney
Thursday 6-8:15 H 523

The real estate bubble and the crash of 2007 -09 uncovered serious strains in the economic and social fabric of global capitalism. The recovery from what turned out to be the most serious recession since the great depression of the 1930s has been slower than hoped for and very uneven. In North America largely because the Fed reinforced the Keynesian fiscal stimulus with significant quantitative easing thereby ensuring appropriately low interest rates, the performance of the recovery has been more solid than in Europe where the European central bank and the European Union have both retarded the recovery by refusing until quite recently to use quantitative easing and stressing fiscal austerity rather than Keynesian policies. As a consequence European unemployment is still very high in a number of countries and Europe appears to be teetering on the edge of deflation and stagnation. But in addition to these negative features of the recovery, the crash and slow recovery laid bare the terrible and widening gap in socio-economic inequality as well as growing poverty in many countries. This course will focus on the issue of inequality and equity in a number of leading global economies in an effort to document the problem, analyse emerging trends and evaluate policy proposals and programs designed to counter it.

Texts: Thomas Piketty, Capital in the 21st century , 2014 The Belknap press of Harvard University, 2014 also available in the original French edition Le capital au XXIe siècle editions du Seuil.
Joseph Stiglitz, The Price of inequality, Norton, 2013.Robert Reich, Saving Capitalism For the Many, Not the Few, 2015:Alfred Knopf.

Additional readings:
Paul Krugman, End This Depression Now
Peter Clarke, Keynes:the rise, Fall and Return of the 20th Century’s Most Influential Economist
Joeseph Stiglitz interview with Lynn Parramore in Salon magazine.
http://www.salon.com/…/joseph_stiglitz_thomas_piketty_gets_income_inequality_ wrong_partner/‎
Anthony Atkinson, Inequality:What can be done?
Meghnad Desai, Marx’s Revenge:The Resurgence of Capitalism and the Death of Statist Socialism, Verso. 2004.
Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom, anchor books, NYC, 1999.,
Ethan Kapstein, Sharing the Wealth,W.W. Norton, 1999.
Frank Stilwell, Political Economy:the Contest of Economic ideas, Oxford University Press, 2012.
John Kenneth Galbraith, The Economics of Innocent Fraud,Houghton Miflin,Boston&NYC, 2004
Helen Sasson, Between Friends, Perspectives on John Kenneth Galbraith Essays by Derek Bok, Carlos Fuentes, Peter Galbraith et al, Houghton Miflin , 1999.
James Galbraith, Created Unequal:The Crisis in American Pay,Twentieth Century fund, The Free Press,Simon&Schuster, 1999.
Samuel Hollander,Classical Economics,University of Toronto Press, 1992.
Alvin Finkel, Our Lives:Canada after 1945, James Lorimer&Company, 1997.
Robert Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers,Simon%Schuster, NYC, revised edition 1965.
Between Capitalism and Socialism:Essays in Political economics, Vintage,Random House, 1970
Robert Lekachman, Greed is Not Enough, Pantheon, NYC, 1982.
John Porter, The Vertical Mosaic, University of Toronto Press
Wallace Clement The Canadian Corporate Elite
A.A. Hunter, Class Tells:On Social Inequality in Canada, 1986
David Harvey, Limits to Capital,Verso, 2006.
Thorstein Veblen, The Theory of the Leisure Class,Macmillan, 1912,Mentor edition 1953.
C.W. Mills, Power,politics and People
Steve Keen, Debunking Economics, Zed books, U.K.2001,London&NYC.
H.Bougrine & Mario Seccareccia eds. Introducing Macroeconomic analysis,Edmund Montgomery, Toronto, 2010.
Adam Harmes, The Return of the State, Protestors, Power Brokers and the New Global Compromise, Douglas and McIntyre, Vancouver&Toronto, 2004.
Tony Cutler, Karel Williams&John Williams, Keynes, Beveridge and beyond, Routledge&Kegan Paul,London&NYC, 1986.

Students will be asked to consult the quality and financial press including The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, the Guardianthe New York Times and the Globe and Mail , Le Monde ,Le figaro, Liberation various issues and weekly during the course for relevant articles to the discussion. Also see the New York Times on line archive on inequality https://www.nytimes.com/topic/subject/income-inequality.

Evaluation:
Each student will required to present a topic in class in combination with one other student 25 % and make available a short 2-3 page synopsis of the presentation to all students and to me. Complete a term essay 40 % and write a final test 40 %.The course is a seminar and hence requires students to come to class prepared to discuss t0pics and react to presentations and display their knowledge of the texts and additional readings.

Course weekly topics:

1.Introduction and overview:

2.The ethical basis of Democracy and markets :Flaws at inception.R.H.Tawney and the Acquisitive society.C.B. Macpherson, Hobbes, Locke, Bentham and Mill, Arrow, Debreau and Sraffa, Marx’s critique.

3. Keynes, full employment and the Beveridge Welfare state.the neo-conservative epoch and the return of inequality.

4.The crash and the sudden growth of inequality as an issue.

5. From Veblen to Keynes to C.W.Mills to J.K.Galbraith; James Galbraith.

6. Thomas Piketty and Joseph Stiglitz

7. Piketty and Stiglitz continued Robert Reich

8 .Reich, Piketty and Stiglitz continued

9. The Canadian case an exception? Innis, Porter, Clement, Hunter,John Macionis global inequality; The American case :Michael Hout, Inequality by Design.

10. Marx, Ricardo,Malthus Keynes and the distribution question in age of globalization

11. Distribution and development :Amartya Sen

12. Distribution and the environment, carbon taxes, stable states, guaranteed annual incomes, GDP and trade issues.

13. Review and conclusion.

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Polit 204 E, Concordia University Introduction to Canadian Politics course outline

Poli 204/E 2017
Introduction to Canadian Politics
Professor Harold Chorney
Course outline

H553 Tuesday 2:45 to 5:30 pm

Office hours Thursday 3:30 to 4:30 others tba.

The study of Canadian politics is a complex field which draws upon a number of traditions in Canadian political science including institutionalism, political behaviour, political theory, international politics, political economy, history, judicial and constitutional history and economic history. In a broad survey course lasting a single term we can only touch upon a number of key aspects of the field. In my view some knowledge of the key economic and political history of Canada and its initial colonial relationship to Great Britain and France and its relationship to the great republic to the south , the United States is essential in making sense of Canadian politics and its political history. The ongoing debate about the place of Québec in Canada can only be properly understood in the light of Canadian history and the history of the French fact in the founding of the country. Much has changed in Canada over its history. New France in the 18th century had a European origin  population of about 70,000. In 1867 the population of Canada was 3.46 million people excluding the first nations’ population of about 120,000 people.In 1913 the population was 7.63 million. In 1941 Canada had a population of about 11.5 million people. Its population today according to Statistics Canada is over 36 million. Whereas in the 1940s and fifties the major groups were those of British or French background and people from other ethnicities constituted less than twenty percent of the population this third group has grown substantially in importance.The first nations’ and aboriginal population is now estimated to be over 1.4 million.

Canada can no longer be understood as a British country or a former French colony. This in strong contrast to the Canada of the early 1950s when both the Union Jack and the Red Ensign flew on the flagpole of my elementary school in Winnipeg and we were considered British subjects. Rather Canadian nationality has come into its own based as it is on a wide range of ethnicities , founding peoples and nations and immigrants from all over the world. We will likely be a nation of more than 40 million in the not too distant future and have in much of the country a strong pan Canadian national sensibility. Yet at the same time Québec maintains its identity as the very successful product of more than 4 centuries of French dominant presence in North America. This French presence and identity is also strong in several other regions of the country notably New Brunswick, Ontario and Manitoba. The partly bilingual character of Canada and the tension over Québec’s place in Canada are creative if difficult elements of the Canadian nation making process.
On October 19th, 2015 Canadians went to the polls to elect a new Parliament. This election was a very closely hard fought election with three major parties each according to the poll of polls having had a good chance initially to elect the largest number of members and form a minority government. We will discuss the election in detail, including the leading policy issues, the nature of the voting system, the differences between the parties, Canadian electoral history and the issue of getting younger Canadians to vote in much larger numbers. The election of a majority government under the leadership of Justin Trudeau a son of a former Prime Minister, Pierre Elliot Trudeau and a coalition of liberals, liberal progressives,environmentalists and liberal social democrats stands in sharp contrast to the recent electoral experience in the USA. Our complex but close trade relationship with the USA under the about to be inaugurated Trump Republican administration is bound to strongly affect Canada and its democracy in the years to come as anti free trade sentiments work their way through Congress and the halls of public opinion.We will face serious economic challenges if the protectionist anti NAFTA nationalist sentiments being projected by President elect Trump are not moderated once he is in office.

Text :Eric Mintz, Livianna Tossutti and Christopher Dunn, Canada’s Politics:Democracy, Diversity and Good Government. Pearson , 2017. Available at text bookstore.

Evaluation: An essay due in the first week of November on a topic chosen from a list of possible topics made available in the next two weeks. 50 %. A final exam 50 %.

Additional reading: I draw upon several other works in Canadian history and Canadian politics . These include Alvin Finkel and Margaret Conrad’s two volume History of the Canadian Peoples vol.1 Beginning to 1867 (1993) vol.2 3rd ed. 1867 to the present; C.B.Macpherson, The Political Theory of Possessive Individualism:Hobbes to Locke;Stanley Ryerson, French Canada; Unequal Union; Craig Brown, the illustrated history of Canada, 2002; Donald Creighton, The Road to Confederation:The Emergence of Canada; Rand Dyck& Christopher Cochrane, Canadian Politics Critical Approaches; Stephen Brooks, Canadian Democracy, Oxford U Press, 2012. Michael Hart, A Trading Nation:Canadian Trade Policy from Confederation to Globalization, 2002. Mel Watkins and W. Easterbrook, Approaches to Canadian Economic History, 1969.Bob Rae,Whats’s Happened to Politics. Simon&Schuster, 2015; Richard Pound, Canadian Facts and Dates,Fitzhenry and Whiteside, 2005.

Topics:

1. Introduction and overview. The recent Canadian election, issues , polls and media spin.The electoral system and the need for reform.The recent American election and its likely impact upon Canada.

2. Geography and Economic history: the role of the staple in French Canada and British North America.Readings and sources: Mintz et al, Canada’s Politics, pp.1-51, pp.91-120; Finkel & Conrad, History of the Canadian Peoples vol.1 & 2; pp.1-208 in vol.2, pp. tba; Michael Hart, A Trading Nation:Canadian Trade Policy from Colonization to Globalization ch.1,2&3. Stanley Ryerson, Unequal Union:Confederation and the Roots of the Conflict in the Canadas 1815-1873; Stephen Clarkson, Does North America exist? Governing the continent after NAFTA and 9/11.Mel Watkins, A Staple Theory of Economic Growth, D.Drache, Harold Innis and Canadian Capitalist Development, and Claire Pentland, The Development of a Capitalistic Labour Market in Canada all in G.Laxer ed, Perspectives on Canadian Economic Development,Oxford U. Press, 1991. J.Bhagwati ,Protectionism; Arghi Emmanuel, Unequal Exchange:A study of the Imperialism of Trade.

3. Aboriginal peoples in pre European Canada. Aboriginal Rights and Governance. The Riel rebellions Manitoba and Québec.

4. The conquest and its legacy.Québec nationalism in twentieth and twenty-first century Canada.

5. Democracy and the Liberal democratic state.The 1837 rebellions and the chartists. The roots of confederation and the Canadian constitution.

6. The clash between labour and capital in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and its impact upon Canadian politics and the political party system.

7. The Canadian economy, the business cycle, free trade , globalization and regional disparities.

8. Canada as an urban nation. The growth of diversity. Canada’s treatment of its minorities. Québec nationalism and Canadian federalism.

9. Canadian political culture and our place in global politics. The other North America.

10. Political parties, interest groups and social movements. Democratic reform.

11. The constitution and the Charter of Rights. The Federal system and the economics of federalism.

12. The institutions of government: Parliament and the power of the Prime Minister.

13. The judiciary and the courts.

14. Summary and Review.

Essay Assignment: Due the first Tuesday in March.i.e. March 7, Write an essay of between 9-10 pages on one of the following topics. The essay must include a bibliography of sources consulted. Sources should include scholarly books, articles from academic journals and where appropriate the quality press, for example The Globe and Mail, The New York Times, Le Devoir. Use a manual of style and proper citation.

Topics:(under construction)
1. “The Quebec Charter of Values was rooted in the Quebec nationalist opposition to Canadian federalism and the nationalists’ rejection of multi-culturalism.” Discuss critically explaining the roots of the debate over values in Quebec, the goal of a secular society in the light of Quebec history and your assessment of the claim that this Charter was simply a legitimate expression of the need to protect Quebec’s culture.

2. How can C.B. Macpherson’s notion of possessive individualism be used to construct a theory of Canadian politics? Explain his theory and explore Canada’s class cleavages and political economy in your essay.

3. Foreign ownership and control of the Canadian economy is still an issue of considerable importance in Canada’s political economy. Explain why and discuss how it has been integrated into our politics in the past and its current status.

4. Does Canada’s voting system of first past the post need to be reformed? What alternative systems are there, how would they work, why would they be better and how could they be implemented.

5.Discuss the power of the Prime Minister and his/her office. What checks if any need to be placed on it?

6. What ought to be Canada’s role in global affairs? Are we a peacemaker or a powder monkey ?

7. Discuss the relationship of Canada to the U.S. Given the close economic integration that the free trade pact has promoted explore what challenges this poses to our sovereignty and independence.

8. Analyze the problem of unemployment. What role has government economic policy played in this problem? What is the role of the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance in managing this problem? Explain the competing approaches of Keynesianism versus monetarism with respect to this problem.

9. Discuss Canadian economic history from the point of view of staple development. Does staple theory still have explanatory power in the twenty first century?

10. Discuss the struggle for responsible democratic government in Canada and its roots in the 1837 rebellions, the Riel rebellion, the struggle of the suffragettes for women’s voting rights and the struggle of the aboriginal people for their rights.

11. What role have trade unions played in Canada’s political and economic development ? How have they enhanced democracy?

12. Discuss the evolution of aboriginal rights and governance in Canada.

13. Discuss the recent Canadian election. In the end what do you believe determined the outcome :policy differences, the image of the party leader; regional differences; ideology; economic circumstances or media manipulation? What can polling tell us about this ? Does the election show us the need for reforming the electoral system?

14. Discuss Canada and free trade in the context of globalization. How can we break free from excessive dependence on an uncertain American market? What differences will the new Trump administration make to the Canada U.S. relationship and should Canada respond ?

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Yellen announces 25 basis point rate increase. Will this dampen Trump’s infrastructure stimulus ?

The chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has announced a small but policy significant increase in their targeted range for interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50 % to 0.5% to 0.75%.
The over night funds rate sits at 0.41% and the Federal reserve open market committee also approved a quarter point rise in the discount rate raising the primary credit rate from 1% to 1.25% points. It also indicated that future rate rises would be “data determined” and gradual over the coming year. The stock market has initially reacted negatively although that may well turn out to be a 24-hour wonder.But there is a more serious issue. Is the US recovery strong enough and the risk of price inflation real enough to justify even this small increase in rates? Some analysts and bankers are convinced.I’m not so sure. That will be the key issue in the months going forward. Keeping the interest rates low enough to accommodate the infrastructure and deficit spending that is part of the Trump strategy going forward should be a top priority. The economy is still quite vulnerable to a set back and discouraged worker unemployment still significant. Low interest rates are a necessary but not sufficient condition of robust economic growth. We are going to see if the Fed has learned the importance of this key insight in the near future. From a Canadian point of view this rate rise may well put pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates as well, They should resist the temptation to do so.

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Renzi stays on for budget approval at request of Italian President

The Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has agreed to stay on pending budget approval. This should help calm nerves for the short term in Italy and abroad. The markets appear to have absorbed the initial shock of the referendum defeat very well in the short run.

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Renzi loses Italian referendum He resigns . Italian politics thrown into turmoil. Market disturbance may follow.

The No side decisively rejected the Italian constitutional referendum 59.3 % to 40.7% . As a consequence the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced his intention to resign. The right and left parties will be eager to capitalize but none of them have enough support to be the government on their own. The Democratic party finished in close to a dead heat with the five star party led by Beppe Grillo each with 25 % of the vote in the 2013 election. The centre right coalition of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi finished not far behind with 21.4%. So a period of instability until the next election is likely in Italian politics. In particular should a needed bailout of some of the banks be required if market losses multiply there may well be a problem in getting such a proposal through a caretaker government. Many will be holding their breath when the markets reopen Monday morning although it may take some time for the markets to assess the damage from the lost referendum in which case losses will be moderate and quickly reversed if confidence is restored.

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