CROP Québec election telephone poll PQ 33%;CAQ28%; PLQ 26%; Undecided 18 %

The latest poll in the Québec election conducted by CROP using a weighted sample survey  of 1002 telephone interviews with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20 appears to confirm the PQ vote at 33 %, the CAQ ascending to second position at 28 % and the slipping of the Liberals into third position at 26 %. However there is a high level of undecided voters at 18 % who appear to lean against the PQ so the election is still not decided. For example among these undecided voters Madame Marois is preferred by only 2 %. Also only 11 % of the undecided prefer sovereignty as compared to 29 % of the overall sample. Also 68 % of the undecided are francophone as opposed to 74 % of the overall sample. Still the poll does appear if borne out on election day to point to a minority PQ government with a strong showing from the CAQ . Because the Liberals appear to be running so far behind among francophones only 19 % versus 30 % for the CAQ and 36 % for the PQ the Liberals are in danger of being reduced to their core base heavily concentrated on Montreal island and the south and to a lesser extent the north shore of the metropolis. If we compare this poll to the opening polls of the campaign we see that the PQ vote has not moved at all stuck at around 33%, which is one of the lowest scores for PQ support in its history as a party. The big change appears to be the erosion of the Liberal vote by the conditional federalist/nationalist CAQ whose leader François Legault has conducted a popular but right wing budget slashing campaign. The PQ has also lost support  to the left wing separatist party Québec Solidaire who are at 7 % in the poll and to the breakaway fraction of  the PQ Option Nationale led by Jean-Martin Aussant. The Greens are also showing at 3 %. Voting in the two days of advance polls was heavy probably because many people will seek to enjoy their last summer holiday and escape the election by relaxing before the hectic days of September begin.

Advertisements

About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
This entry was posted in Canada, Québec, Québec election. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s