A new poll by Forum Research, the same group that released a poll right after the first debate that showed the Liberals in the lead at 35 % has come out showing the PQ back at 33 %, the Liberals at 28%, the CAQ at 27%, the left wing sovereigntist Québec solidaire at 8 %,the Greens at 2 % and Option National the splinter party from the PQ at 2 %. The poll was of 2618 electors and has a margin of error 19 times out of 20 of 1.9 %. Among non francophone voters  the Liberals are preferred by 67 %, the CAQ by 19 %, the Greens by 5 % and the PQ by 4 %. The Globe and Mail has published an analysis that predicts on the basis of the polls to date , previous election results and constituency analysis a narrow PQ majority. But it may well yet turn out differently with PQ losing 2-3 seats to its left wing sovereigntist opponents and also more contests that it expects to either the CAQ in the Québec city area and exurban suburbs north and east of Montréal and to the Liberals in the Montréal island and north and south shore areas. However, once again the perils of the first past the post non proportional voting system that we use in Canada may well be revealed yet again.The system cries out for reform but no one in power seems in a hurry to do something about it. A party with as little as 32-3 % of the vote in Québec might  still win a majority of the seats and plunge the country into a much disliked constitutional crisis. The will of the majority to avoid such a destructive path may well be  thwarted by this archaic electoral system. Another problem in Québec is that the smaller , cities ,towns and rural areas are over represented with more than half the seats in the assembly. The major urban areas which tend to vote for a federalist option like the Montreal agglomeration and Québec city area account for 58 % of the population but less than 50 % of the seats in the National Assembly.