A new day some more polls and Québec election analysis

A new poll by Forum Research, the same group that released a poll right after the first debate that showed the Liberals in the lead at 35 % has come out showing the PQ back at 33 %, the Liberals at 28%, the CAQ at 27%, the left wing sovereigntist Québec solidaire at 8 %,the Greens at 2 % and Option National the splinter party from the PQ at 2 %. The poll was of 2618 electors and has a margin of error 19 times out of 20 of 1.9 %. Among non francophone voters  the Liberals are preferred by 67 %, the CAQ by 19 %, the Greens by 5 % and the PQ by 4 %. The Globe and Mail has published an analysis that predicts on the basis of the polls to date , previous election results and constituency analysis a narrow PQ majority. But it may well yet turn out differently with PQ losing 2-3 seats to its left wing sovereigntist opponents and also more contests that it expects to either the CAQ in the Québec city area and exurban suburbs north and east of Montréal and to the Liberals in the Montréal island and north and south shore areas. However, once again the perils of the first past the post non proportional voting system that we use in Canada may well be revealed yet again.The system cries out for reform but no one in power seems in a hurry to do something about it. A party with as little as 32-3 % of the vote in Québec might  still win a majority of the seats and plunge the country into a much disliked constitutional crisis. The will of the majority to avoid such a destructive path may well be  thwarted by this archaic electoral system. Another problem in Québec is that the smaller , cities ,towns and rural areas are over represented with more than half the seats in the assembly. The major urban areas which tend to vote for a federalist option like the Montreal agglomeration and Québec city area account for 58 % of the population but less than 50 % of the seats in the National Assembly.

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About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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