This latest poll was taken after the recent debates and suggests if the percentages held up on election day that the PQ would win a minority government. The PQ are heavily in the lead among francophones and in the seats outside of the Quebec city and Montreal island areas. The CAQ is leading in the Québec city area. The Liberals have a huge lead among non francophones.67 % to 9% for the PQ and 15% for the CAQ and among older voters. They lag far behind among younger voters. The poll is based on a telephone survey of 1929 people selected from an on line population of 185,000 voters sampled in such a way as to mirror the electorate . However, as I have pointed out before these sorts of polls are less reliable because of the lack of randomness than properly conducted sample surveys because they contain a measure of self-selection and they can underrepresent certain classes of voters who are less likely to frequent the internet thereby biasing the sample.For example, older voters may be less internet savy and less likely to be part of the population from the internet that is sampled.(For a good discussion of problems with these sorts of polls see http://www.wnd.com/2000/10/6728/; and also NY Times Jan 15 , 2012 Nate Silver’s blog http://www.fivethirteight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/15 before=citing-a-poll-read-the -fine-print. ) The danger is that the public and many journalists are unaware of these sorts of problems and can use erroneous polls to shift public opinion in one direction or another.
We shall see how other polls compare.