Unemployment rate down to 6.6% in U.S. & 7.0% in Canada

The latest news on unemployment is moderately positive. The headline rates are down. But the number of new employees in the U.S. was smaller than expected. Here courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labour statistics is the monthly evidence of growing employment since the beginning of the recovery period.In addition to the headline rate falling the broader measure of unemployment also fell. This is a good sign. It needs to fall much further but the trend now seems positive if still somewhat hesitant. In Canada unemployment dropped in the two largest provinces Ontario and Quebec, also a good sign. It needs to drop further if the recovery is to avoid stalling out.

U.S. Monthly gains or losses in employment 2004 to Jan. 2014 in 1000s
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2004 161 44 332 249 307 74 32 132 162 346 65 129
2005 134 239 134 363 175 245 373 196 67 84 337 159
2006 277 315 280 182 23 77 207 184 157 2 210 171
2007 238 88 188 78 144 71 -33 -16 85 82 118 97
2008 15 -86 -80 -214 -182 -172 -210 -259 -452 -474 -765 -697
2009 -798 -701 -826 -684 -354 -467 -327 -216 -227 -198 -6 -283
2010 18 -50 156 251 516 -122 -61 -42 -57 241 137 71
2011 70 168 212 322 102 217 106 122 221 183 164 196
2012 360 226 243 96 110 88 160 150 161 225 203 214
2013 197 280 141 203 199 201 149 202 164 237 274 75(P)
2014 113(P)
P : preliminary

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Once again panic artists among hedge funds and day traders oversell the markets

There is hardly ever a dull day on the worlds equity and bond markets. Late last week amid some some gloomy reports on developing country markets and less bullish news about China’s growth rate traders and hedge funds rushed to unload some of their holdings and short sell others. The result -not a surprise- the Dow lost over 300 points in Friday’s trading.However today after a slow start the Dow is currently at 3:23 in the afternoon up 42 points and the panic is subsiding. There is quite possibly going to be slower growth but the overall recovery should continue and if appropriate policy is implemented even strengthen. So long as governments avoid the siren call for austerity.It is this mistaken policy and the widespread erroneous belief that QE will result in serious inflation even in current circumstances that lies behind this nervousness and short term thinking in the markets. 

I could be wrong but I don’t believe that markets will be excessively bearish for very long.

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How long will inflation stay low ? Have we entered a new age of low inflation , slower growth and sluggish employment ?

The question on many people’s minds in the financial and futures markets is all about judging the future inflation rate. Inflation has not been a problem for most of the past decade and certainly not a problem since the crash of 2008 which is now approaching six years ago. What the crash and slow recovery and quantitative easing has demonstrated is that inflation is not an automatic response to monetary ease, contrary to what followers of Milton Friedman believe. This is what Keynesians like Nicholas Kaldor always argued, particularly in his polemic The Scourge of Monetarism intended as a rebuttal to Friedman. This is what I also believe after having examined Canadian data over a forty year time period between 1950 and 1989 on the relationship between the rate of inflation as measured by the GNE deflator and the ratio of central bank monetized debt and the broadly defined money supply. Contrary to what one might have expected following Friedman there was no consistent correlation between the two variables. There were years where the ratio of monetized debt was very high but inflation was low and fell further in subsequent years. On the other hand there were high rates of inflation as the ratio of monetized debt fell to lower levels. This suggested to me that inflation was due to other factors than pure monetary policy.(See Harold Chorney, “A Regional Approach to Monetary and fiscal Policy ” in JMcCrorie&M.Macdonald, The Constitutional Future of the Prairie and Atlantic Regions of Canada, Canadian Plains Research Centre, University of Regina, 1992; and Harold Chorney , Debts, Deficits and Full Employment” in Daniel Drache & Robert Boyer, Eds. States Against Markets, The Limits to Globalization, Routledge, 1996; and Harold Chorney,”Keynes and the Problem of Inflation,paper originally presented to a conference on la théorie générale et le keynésianisme Université de Montréal, Feb. 1987 published in G. Dostaler et G.Boismenu, la théorie générale et le keynésianisme Montréal, ACFAS, 1987.)

Now as the Fed pares back very gradually its QE, what are we finding out about inflation ? Disinflation as opposed to inflation is the concern. In other words the rate is too low in the U.S. and in western Europe and has been too low for a long period of time in Japan although the situation may be improving there in recent months.The current rates are: Canada 0.9 % ; the U.S. 1.5 %; U.K. 2.0% France 0.7; Germany 1.43%; Italy 0.66 % Japan 1.61 %.

This does not mean that there never can be inflationary pressure as the recovery takes hold but it appears for the forseeable near future inflation is very weak and unlikely to be a major problem for some time to come. Hence my earlier admonition to the Bank of Canada to hold off raising rates and even consider cutting them so long as unemployment creeps up and growth is tepid.

The great recession has left little room for the time being for price rise. Instead we have to concentrate on repairing long neglected infrastructure , particularly here in Quebec where today one of the Montreal school boards announced that a third of the schools need long overdue repair and where we have had ongoing issues with highway and bridge safety. Employment creating investments are what is needed and there is no shortage of projects to be tackled.

When all the necessary investments have been made and the unemployment level drops to reasonable levels below 5 % then we can turn our attention to inflation.

Posted in business cycles, Canada, European unemployment, fiscal policy, J.M.Keynes, Milton Friedman and NAIRU, monetary policy, U.S., Uncategorized, unemployment | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Unemployment Rises in Canada, falls in U.S. but weak numbers in both countries suggest possible slow down

Statistics Canada and the U.S. bureau of labour statistics published their December unemployment numbers and there are signs of potential trouble in both sets of numbers. The unemployment rate rose in Canada to 7.2% and fell in the U.S. to 6.7 %. But the number of people in the labour force seeking work fell by a large amount in the U.S. and the total number of new jobs created in December was well below expectations, with only 75,000 additional jobs being added well below the number added in previous months. Revisions may improve that picture but for the time being its not a positive sign. The headline number is attractive-6.7 %seasonally adjusted(non seasonally adjusted its even better 6.5%) unemployment is the lowest rate in 6 years for the U.S. and it looks much better than the Canadian rate which is now .5 % points higher at 7.2 %. Any thought s at the Bank of Canada about raising interest rates will have to be put on hold. Instead they ought to consider lowering them. Equally important the trend in Government to promote cut backs needs to be reversed. While the national rate rose to 7.2 % in Canada the rate rise was substantial in both Ontario and Québec the manufacturing heartland of the country. Quebec’s rate rose to 7.7 % and unemployment in Montreal was 8.0% while Ontario’s rate rose to 7.9 %. On a provincial basis the Canadian rate of unemployment was as follows( the second number is the participation rate): Newfoundland +Labrador  10.8 %  61.2 %; PEI  11.5 % 68.8 %; Nova Scotia  9.2 %  63.3 %; New Brunswick  9.7 % 63.3 %; Quebec  7.7%  65.3% ; Ontario  7.9%  66.3%; Manitoba  5.5%  68.2%; Saskatchewan 3.5 % 69.6 %; Alberta 4.8%  72.9%;  B.C. 6.6%  63.8 %.

 In the U.S. the key factor which explains the fall in the headline rate to 6.7% was the fall in the number of workers in the labour force. Some 74,000 net new jobs were added in the U.S. to the payroll but this is well below the revised 241,000 jobs added in November. It may well turn out that the December numbers will be revised upward or that they are largely due to the very bad weather that prevailed for a major part of the month. The broad measure of unemployment U6 remained at 13.1 %.So while the headline rate of 6.7 % is welcome news, labour participation rates need to rise and net new jobs need to be substantially increased over this month’s lower level in the coming months to maintain the positive momentum.This may well happen. In December’s report the government sector lost 13,000 jobs, health care a thousand and construction employment fell by 16,000 clear indications that the sequestration continues to impede even lower unemployment.

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Poli 349:Political and social theory and the city Course outline fall 2021. policy 349 AA (9930)Thursday 5:45-8:15 Prof.Harold Chorney

This course focuses on the rise of the metropolis and its links to economic and technical change that underlay the beginnings of nineteenth and twentieth century industrial capitalism. The city has always played a central role in both conservative and radical social theory.The search for community and the overcoming of alienation and loneliness is at the heart of considerable social theory. The rise of mass society and its displacement of class society is also a central theme in much post modern literature and has a useful role to play in explaining the cultural and communicative nature of society in an increasingly globalized high tech world.

We explore these themes by carefully examining the work of a number of writers from the nineteenth, twentieth and twenty first centuries.

 

The grade will be based upon a term essay due in class in the last week of October 50 % and a final test at the end of term.

 

Text: Harold Chorney, City of Dreams: Social Theory and the Urban Experience, Nelson Canada 1990. Lawrence Cahoone, editor From Modernism to Post Modernism.Blackwell publishing 2003.Selected chapters.

Lecture topics:

1. Introduction and overview: the rise of cities and the search for community. Post modernism versus modernism.

2. Alienation, class consciousness and urbanization: the work of Marx and Engels.

3. Gemeinschaft versus Gesellschaft :the work of Ferdinand Toennies

4.Georg Simmel: the Metropolis and Mental Life.

5.Urbanization and anomie and the conscience collective: the work of Emile Durkheim .

6.Max Weber: Modernism and Disenchantment. The economy of cities.

7.The Chicago School , mass society and American mainstream urban sociology. The early roots of post modernism.

8. Georg Lukacs and the theory of reification.

9. Walter Benjamin and the Theory of Technical Reproduction.

10. The Frankfurt School and the dialectic of enlightenment.

11. The phenomenology of the Urban:From social theory to public policy.

12. Toward a critical theory of urban policy and politics in the global metropolis.

Essay assignment:Write a 10-12 page essay on one of the following topics.Be sure that your essay is free of grammatical errors and has a bibliography and is properly footnoted . Use a manual of style like the University of Chicago or Harvard Manual in guiding your notes or footnotes and bibliography.

Essay topics: (Still under revision)

1.Explore modernism and post modernism as philosophical concepts and cultural movements. How are they usable in building a theory of social change in cities. Why is Marx a modernist and Benjamin more of a post modernist ?

2. Explore the work of Walter Benjamin in depth. How is it that he transcends political analysis and enters the realm of art and literature.

3. Select two writers in City of Dreams other than Benjamin and Marx and explore and compare their work.

4. Explain and analyze global metropolises . How does the phenomenology approach aid us in our understanding of a global metropolis ?

5. Use some of the theoretical perspectives developed in City of Dreams to analyze Montreal city politics in recent years.

6. Do an in depth analysis of the work of Jacques Derrida. Explain how it is the outgrowth of his rejection of Sartre’s conception of modernity.

7. How has modern technology facilitated the growth of community? Can the kind of community which this social media driven community has created be considered comparable to the community which writers like Toennies , Durkheim and Marx were searching for.

8. Explore the economic, philosophical and sociological aspects of Marx and Engels’ analysis of cities and capitalism. What if anything in their analysis is still relevant in the the 21st century.

Class notes:

A:Useful in conjunction with the lectures on Marx and the metropolis

1. The falling rate of profit. Major financial crises like the one we have experienced in 2008 -09 and the tensions surrounding globalization raise fascinating questions about the structural problems of modern capitalism. In the nineteenth century and for much of the twentieth century many economists debated this question. Keynes was convinced that there was little value in returning to any debate that was wedded to the anachronistic labour theory of value. Instead, he approached the issue of crisis from the point of view of less than full employment aggregate demand and the failure of the classical labour market clearing mechanism to operate consistently to deliver full employment. The labour theory of value that originated in the work of David Ricardo and was built upon by Marx to develop his theory of crisis that was rooted in the tendency of the rate of profit to fall over time because of a tendency to increase the organic composition of capital, that is the ratio of embodied technology, physical plant and raw material that was a key ingredient in the production process. These increases were motivated by the entrepreneurial and corporate desire to increase labour productivity.If the productivity gains are large enough they can reverse the tendency for the profit rate to fall. This was the argument of Bortkiewicz .In a funny sort of way it is also the argument of those who argue that high end technological innovation will rescue the first world from the global outsourcing that is going on whereby production is being shifted from North America and West Europe to countries like China, India and Asia generally. The unresolved problem still remains that high end technology does not appear so far to generate enough jobs quickly enough to replace all those that are being lost due to outsourcing. In addition there is the very real problem of ensuring enough global effective aggregate demand to purchase all of the high end output generated by these high tech centres of activity.

Keynes dismissed the labour theory of value as out of date controversializing, but members of his circle like Michal Kalecki were less certain. Even Keynes chose to use an hour’s employment of ordinary labour and the remuneration it received as his numeraire in the General Theory.(see ch.4 GT) Bortkiewicz and Bohm Bawerk in their work raised effective critiques of Marx’s doctrine, according to Sweezy, although Sweezy remained much more convinced that Bortkiewicz was closer to the truth than was Bohm Bawerk.( Bohm Bawerk, Karl Marx and the Close of his System, P.Sweezy editor, London , 1948; L.Bortkiewicz, “Value and price in the Marxian system” translated from “Archiv fur Socialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, ertrechnung und Preisrechnung in Marxschen System” Bd.xxlllHeft 1, 1906, International economic papers no.2.) Bortkiewicz argues that Marx was guilty of methodological inconsistencies and neglected the mathematical relation between the productivity of labour, dependent upon the organic composition of capital and the rate of surplus value.The rise in productivity may be such as to totally reverse any tendency for the rate of profit to fall.But this may also imply a tendency to increase the rate of exploitation of labour. Roman Rosdolsky attempts not completely successfully to refute both Sweezy and Bortkiewicz and Keynes’s colleague, Cambridge economist Joan Robinson in their critique of the falling rate of profit in his work The Making of Marx’s Capital, (London, Pluto Press, 1980, pp.398-411). Meghnad Desai in Marxian Economic Theory, ( London, Gray Mills publishing , 1974) has pointed out that Michio Morishima (whose class I regularly attended at the L.S.E.) believed that it would be better to abandon the labour theory of value because of the very difficult technical complications requiring complex mathematics to resolve in order to transform values into prices.(See also Desai’s work Marx’s Revenge:The resurgence of Capitalism and the Death of statist socialism, London:Verso books 2004) Morishima wrote “

We conclude by suggesting to Marxian economists that they ought radically to change their attitude towards the labour theory of value. If it has to determine the amounts of labour which the techniques of production actually adopted in a capitalist economy require, directly and indirectly , in order to produce commodities, it is not a satisfactory theory at all.” M.Morishima, Marx’s economics, Cambridge University press, 1973 p.193. Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy attempted to do precisely that in their classic Monopoly Capital wherein they substituted the tendency for the surplus to rise and the problem of surplus absorption for the falling rate of profit.Piero Sraffa’s classic work The Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities:Prelude to a Critique of Economic Theory, 1960, Cambridge University press, demonstrates a workable mathematical method for assessing dated labour in terms of its contribution to the value and price of a commodity which makes a very key contribution to this debate.

Sraffa demonstrates convincingly how prices and values vary with variations in the rate of profit. Sraffa was a friend and colleague of Keynes who Keynes had helped rescue from fascist Italy before the Second World War by helping him secure a position at Cambridge. Sweezy in his classic Theory of Capitalist Development reduces the falling rate of profit to the following striking formulation; p=s'(1-q) where p is the rate of profit and q the organic composition of capital i.e. c/c+v (Marx in Capital vol 2 defines it as c/v rather than as Sweezy defines it c/c+v )p.625 chapter 23, vol.2 Dutton, Everyman’s library edition, London&N.Y. translated by Eden and Cedar Paul, introduction by G.D.H. Cole. &vol.3 p.214 ch xlll, progress edition, 1966.) He arrives at this as follows. p= s/c+v = sv/v(c+v) = sc+sv -sc/v(c+v) = s(c+v)/v(c+v) – sc/v(c+v) = s/v-s/v.c/c+v= s/v(1-1.c/c +v) = s'(1-q) (p.68) We won’t be pursuing this controvery further in the course but those who wish to read further about it consult the works cited above and also look at Ronald Meek, Studies in the Labour theory of Value, Jesse Schwartz, ed.

Subtle Anatomy of Capitalism and M.Desai, Marx’s Revenge as well as Paul Mattick, Marx and Keynes. Desai who is a former teacher of mine who may now want to revise his assessment about the success of globalization in the light of recent events has an interesting chapter on Marx, Hayek and Keynes.You might also want to look at my conference paper which I presented to the association for heterodox economics in London in 2001 which is part of the Deficit Papers, The Theory of the Business cycle in Keynes, Hayek and Schumpter:What do we know in the Age of globalization ? David Harvey, Limits to Capital, Verso 2006 is also very accessible and useful in integrating spatial and urban issues from a radical geography perspective.

Perspectivism:One of you brought up this approach which is identified with Nietzsche’s view of the relativity of belief according to the perspective of the individual , as opposed to the objective circumstances of reality. You are right , of course, to suggest a close affinity between the views of the post moderns, relativism and those of Nietzsche. However, in City of Dreams I drew not upon Nietzsche but rather upon the phenomenology of Husserl, Merleau Ponty, Schutz, Mead and Berger and Luckmann among others, as well as my own observations about the metropolis and the work of Benjamin.Clearly the approaches are related.

Jurgen Habermas: for those interested in exploring the work of Jurgen Habermas and the culture of communications in more detail you can start by checking out the references in footnote 34 on pp.52-53. see also Harold Innis’s Bias of Communications. See also, Jurgen Habermas’s prolific writing for example: Knowledge and Human Interests; Toward a Rational Society;Legitimation Crisis(available on the internet)The Theory of Communicative Action; also Thomas McCarthy, The Critical Theory of Jurgen Habermas.

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Poli 212 Politics and Economy winter 2014 course outline

This course is a survey course which introduces students to the study of political economy a discipline which draws on the sub field in political science but also on the history of economic thought, policy analysis, economic history, neoclassical economics and political theory. It is by its nature interdisciplinary. Political economy itself was what economics was called and called itself from the early nineteenth century right up until the first part of the twentieth century when the name economics took its place. Canada like the U.S. and the entire developed capitalist world has been going through the most severe economic crisis since the great depression of the 1930s. We shall intensively examine the history, traditions and tools of the discipline and use them to analyse a number of contemporary economic policy issues including globalization, unemployment, price stability, market ideology, free trade, economic development and the environment.

 

Text: Frank Stilwell, Political Economy:The Contest of Economic Ideas, Oxford University Press, 2012, 3rd edition.pp.458.

haroldchorneyeconomist.com. A word press blog selected posts on deficits and debt, quantitative easing, the crash and crisis and economic theory.

Grade: Essay 50 % due in class March 4.  Final test 50 %.

Topics:

1. Political economy and politics and economy, introduction and overview. Reading Stilwell part one pp 1-39.

2. The language of political economy  :key concepts Stilwell pp. xl to xxl.

3. Economic systems , economic theories and classical political economy.  Stillwell pp.40 – 96.

4. The critique of capitalism. Crises, slumps and prolonged unemployment. the business cycle and Marx versus Keynes.pp.98-148.

5. Neo-classical economics: Markets, sovereign consumers, utility maximization and economic efficiency.Stilwell pp.149-209.

6. Economic systems and economic theories impact upon policy and politics,   Stilwell pp.200-209. Chorney posts:The theory of the business cycle in Hayek, Keynes and Schumpeter, posted Sept.13, 2011; After the Crash:Rediscovering Keynes and the Origins of Quantitative Easing, June 3, 2011. tba.

7. Neo-liberalism and Pareto optimality Stilwell, pp.200-209.

8.Institutional economics:Galbraith, Veblen and Mitchell and American capitalism.Stilwell pp.212-240. ; the natural rate of inflation versus the natural rate of unemployment.Chorney’s website on Galbraith.

9. The state and the economic well being. The role of politics, the rise of Keynesian intervention.  Stilwell, pp 241-262  Chorney web site items.

10. John Maynard Keynes and aggregate demand .Stilwell  pp.264-315. Chorney web site items. Keynes versusu monetarists 1&2; aggregate demand; Revisiting deficit hysteria; Rediscovering Keynes and the origins of quantitative easing.

11. Environmental economics; class ,gender and ethnicity; political economy of the state. Stilwell; pp.318-414.

 

 

Essay Assignment: Write an essay of between 10-12 pages on one of the following topics. Be sure to use a manual of style in preparing the essay and bibliography. Possible topics include the following:(still subject to revision)

1. Select two schools of political economy or economic thought and explore them in depth, including tracing their history, examining their analysis and implications for policy. Possible schools include classical political economy; institutionalism; marxist political economy; neo-classical economics; Keynesian and post Keynesian approaches.

2. Select a policy problem like free trade, unemployment, competition and anti trust, the environment or social policy and analyze it using one or more approaches from the tradition of political economy.

3. The recent financial crash and following recession demonstrated certain flaws in the dominant neo-classical school of thought. What were they and how did they manifest themselves. What do other schools have in their arsenal of tools and analyses that might have led to a better outcome.

4. Explore environmental economics as a useful approach in the twenty-first century.

5. Write an essay on problems of growth and development in Latin America. Make use of one or more of the schools of political economy in analyzing the problems and developing appropriate policies.

6. Discuss the theory of investment and crisis theory in various economic schools of thought. Which approach do you find most convincing.

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Demographic slowdown in U.S. may be one of the causes of the deep recession and slow recovery

First of all a healthy and happy New Year to everyone. With any luck and some good policies this year should be more prosperous for more people than 2013.  We are beginning the sixth year since the crash and financial crisis of late 2007 and 2008 . The American economy continues to grow and heal, unemployment although still elevated is gradually improving and prosperous expectations in response to favourable monetary policy and revived consumer spending are growing the stock and real estate markets. My undergraduate macro-economics professor Clarence Barber published several significant papers on population growth, the demand for capital and the origins of the great depression. (See Clarence Barber, Collected Economic Papers edited by A.M.C.Waterman, D.J. Hum and B.L.Scarfe, 1982) these papers were originally published in the American Economic Review, The Southern Economic Journal and the Transactions of the Royal Society of Canada. His argument which I always found quite interesting and useful was that the rate of population growth fell sharply in the U.S., Canada and Australia, New Zealand in the 1930s as compared to the rate that had prevailed in the previous decades. This fall was also true of Western and Northern Europe.Barber then linked this data to a Keynesian Harrod-Domar growth model and analysis of the linkages of population growth to building construction data, real estate activity and business capital investment plans. He concluded one of the papers with a quote from John Hicks’s Value and Capital . ” Nevertheless, one cannot repress the thought that perhaps the whole Industrial revolution of the last two hundred years has been nothing else but a  vast secular boom, largely induced by the unparalled rise of population.” I raise Barber’s important work because of an intriguing article a few days ago in the Washington Post written by Carol Morello on a slow down in the rate of the American population growth rate to below 1 %. In her article,Population Gains at Near Historic Lows she reports on the consequences of the recession as involving a slowdown in population growth. But it may well be that among the triggering mechanisms in the  overall economic environment that were linked to the bursting of the real estate bubble might well be the slow down in the population growth rate in the U.S. and Western Europe. Something which the wave of anti-immigrant hysteria is not likely to help. 

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Austerity and destruction of trade unions in Europe seeks to restore the anti Keynesian economic policies of the 1930s

The unemployment rate dropped slightly in the U.S. which is of course a good thing. Check out the U.S. Bureau of Labour statistics for the latest numbers. However, there are still some very bad things happening in Europe around economic and labour relations policy which need to be discussed.

The New York Times has done its part by publishing an important article which discusses the latest trends in European labour and wages policy . The data is not pretty as it reveals a widespread campaign to eliminate collective bargaining rights and the unions that are essential to maintaining a decent standard of life for working people and  a reasonable degree of income equality. Instead European economists and policy leaders and politicians are promoting these policies as a way to reduce both nominal and real wages. The approach which The Times calls the Americanization of the European labour markets is much more troubling than that. European policy specialists , neo-con economists and others wedded to anti-Keynesian theory are convinced that the solution to unemployment lies not with bolstering inadequate aggregate demand but rather with promoting a ruthless race to the bottom making countries’ with high unemployment more competitive by lowering their   average real wage. This is precisely the argument that Keynes attacked in The General Theory namely that unemployment was voluntary due to the claim that the  marginal disutility of work always equalled the utility of the wage. So if people were unemployed it was by choice. They simply had to lower their wage demands and they would find work . Keynes rejected this classical postulate. (See G.T. p.5)   In framing the argument in this way classical economists in the 1930s were trying to deny what stared them and Keynes in the face. There were not enough jobs available to soak up the unemployed because of inadequate aggregate demand. Keynes and his circle understood this but the classicals did not. The European leadership is engaged in committing the same fundamental error.They are seeking to lower wages in the mistaken belief it will restore prosperity.  They are wrong and repeating one of the terrible errors of the 1930s . It can only end badly.

Posted in austerity, classical economics, deficits and debt, European debt crisis, European unemployment, full employment, J.M.Keynes, treasury view, Uncategorized, unemployment | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Federal byelections: Liberals may win 3 of the 4 in close races.

The counting is not complete but so far the Conservatives have won only Provencher, essentially a safe Tory seat but in the three other ridings they look like they will be soundly defeated in Bourassa and Toronto Centre where the NDP’s Linda Mcquaig looks likely to lose a hard fought race to Liberal Chrystia Freeland  and possibly also lose in Brandon Souris where the Liberals may well win a very close race with the Conservatives. The turnouts in all four ridings are unimpressive so one ought not to draw huge implications from the results but Justin Trudeau will be very pleased by the outcome and Linda McQuaig whom I have followed with interest for years will be disappointed to lose the election. But she will get a chance in two years to try again. The latest results are as follows:

Toronto Centre

C .Freeland Liberal 8834

L.McQuaig NDP  6839

G.Pollack Conservative  1634

J.Deverell Green  560

 

Brandon Souris 

R.Dinsdale Liberal  9354

L.Maguire Cons.  8922

C.Szczepanski  NDP 1668

 

Bourassa

E.Dubourg Liberal 6880

S.Moraille NDP 4511

D.Duranleau  B.Q. 1842

R.Mahoud Cons. 644

 

Provencher

Ted Falk Cons.8365

Terry Howard Liberal  4483

Nathalie Beaudry   NDP 1229

Courtesy of Elections Canada here are the results as of early this morning.

Preliminary Results
Toronto Centre Last updated: 02:05 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes
PC Party Dorian Baxter 460 1.3
Independent Leslie Bory 53 0.2
Independent Kevin Clarke 89 0.3
Green Party John Deverell 1,027 3.0
Libertarian Judi Falardeau 250 0.7
Liberal Chrystia Freeland 17,081 49.1
NDP-New Democratic Party Linda McQuaig 12,643 36.4
Online Party Michael Nicula 44 0.1
Conservative Geoff Pollock 3,024 8.7
Independent John “The Engineer” Turmel 75 0.2
Independent Bahman Yazdanfar 29 0.1
Total number of valid votes: 34,775
Polls reporting: 268/268 Voter turnout: 34,775 of 91,612 registered electors (38.0%)
The number of registered electors shown in this table does not include electors who registered on election day.

Preliminary Results
Provencher Last updated: 00:21 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes
NDP-New Democratic Party Natalie Courcelles Beaudry 1,837 8.2
Conservative Ted Falk 13,021 58.1
Green Party Janine Gibson 849 3.8
Liberal Terry Hayward 6,706 29.9
Total number of valid votes: 22,413
Polls reporting: 195/195 Voter turnout: 22,413 of 66,624 registered electors (33.6%)
The number of registered electors shown in this table does not include electors who registered on election day.

Preliminary Results
Brandon–Souris Last updated: 01:03 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes
Liberal Rolf Dinsdale 11,814 42.7
Libertarian Frank William James Godon 271 1.0
Conservative Larry Maguire 12,205 44.1
Green Party David Michael Neufeld 1,354 4.9
NDP-New Democratic Party Cory Szczepanski 2,037 7.4
Total number of valid votes: 27,681
Polls reporting: 210/210 Voter turnout: 27,681 of 61,910 registered electors (44.7%)
The number of registered electors shown in this table does not include electors who registered on election day.

Preliminary Results
Bourassa Last updated: 01:29 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes
Liberal Emmanuel Dubourg 8,767 48.1
Bloc Québécois Daniel Duranleau 2,387 13.1
Rhinoceros Serge Lavoie 140 0.8
Conservative Rida Mahmoud 852 4.7
NDP-New Democratic Party Stéphane Moraille 5,716 31.4
Green Party Danny Polifroni 368 2.0
Total number of valid votes: 18,230
Polls reporting: 204/204 Voter turnout: 18,230 of 69,527 registered electors (26.2%)
The number of registered electors shown in this table does not include electors who registered on election day.

So it would appear that the Liberals have captured Toronto Centre and Bourassa, seats they already held and the Conservatives have held on to Provencher and Brandon-Souris but the Liberals have greatly improved their vote in Brandon -Souris perhaps because of Rolf Dinsdale and the popularity of the Dinsdale brand in Brandon as much as Justin Trudeau.

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The Assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy fifty years later

This week on Friday November 22 is the fiftieth anniversary of the murder of John F.Kennedy in Dallas ,Texas. Its hard to believe that fifty years have passed.I was seventeen at the time, a first year university student at the University of Manitoba and like many  people at the time an enthusiastic admirer of the President who seemed to embody all the hope , idealism and eloquence of a new generation leading the post-war world toward prosperity, peace and a reduction in the stressful and dangerous tensions of the cold war between the West and the Soviet Union.We had just emerged in my last year of high school from the terrifying Cuban missile crisis when I and my classmates would say goodbye at the end of the school day wondering if we would live to see one another the next day. It was very hard then not to be frightened at the state of the world. But we were very hopeful once that crisis had been resolved that this handsome, bright, progressive and charming person who had narrowly  won the Presidency from a clearly more old school conservative politician, Richard Nixon and who replaced the two term older politician President Dwight Eisenhower would advance the cause of peace and modernity. I had followed the election with great interest including the televised debate and the dramatic election night results. I remember, like everyone who was alive then and who was old enough to be conscious of the news and political events,  precisely where I was when I heard the the horrible unbelievable news that President Kennedy had been shot. Our chemistry professor Dr. Kartzmark somberly cancelled our class and I went home. We were all in a state of shock traumatized by the news. Over the decades that have passed controversy still swirled around the precise events of that terrible day and whether it was, as the Warren Commission claimed ,the work of a lone unbalanced assassin or the result of some sort of conspiracy. The alleged assassin Lee Harvey Oswald two days later while in police custody was shot down on live television before the eyes of millions.It all seemed like a terrible nightmare. I think in a way the trauma from the day that Kennedy was shot and all the political turmoil and assassinations and wars that followed traumatized many people for many decades. The shock was so enormous and hard to explain to those who were not alive then. JFK became over the years a mythological figure . We now know in addition to his greatness which was demonstrated in his handling of the Cuban missile crisis, the roll back of steel prices, and his backing of civil rights and somehow captured in his forever youthful image he had his human faults and even weaknesses. But for many of us he embodied hope, idealism and progressive aspirations and his murder was a great tragedy from which we have never completely recovered.

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