The Federal byelections: Liberals may win 3 of the 4 in close races.

The counting is not complete but so far the Conservatives have won only Provencher, essentially a safe Tory seat but in the three other ridings they look like they will be soundly defeated in Bourassa and Toronto Centre where the NDP’s Linda Mcquaig looks likely to lose a hard fought race to Liberal Chrystia Freeland  and possibly also lose in Brandon Souris where the Liberals may well win a very close race with the Conservatives. The turnouts in all four ridings are unimpressive so one ought not to draw huge implications from the results but Justin Trudeau will be very pleased by the outcome and Linda McQuaig whom I have followed with interest for years will be disappointed to lose the election. But she will get a chance in two years to try again. The latest results are as follows:

Toronto Centre

C .Freeland Liberal 8834

L.McQuaig NDP  6839

G.Pollack Conservative  1634

J.Deverell Green  560

 

Brandon Souris 

R.Dinsdale Liberal  9354

L.Maguire Cons.  8922

C.Szczepanski  NDP 1668

 

Bourassa

E.Dubourg Liberal 6880

S.Moraille NDP 4511

D.Duranleau  B.Q. 1842

R.Mahoud Cons. 644

 

Provencher

Ted Falk Cons.8365

Terry Howard Liberal  4483

Nathalie Beaudry   NDP 1229

Courtesy of Elections Canada here are the results as of early this morning.

Preliminary Results
Toronto Centre Last updated: 02:05 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes
PC Party Dorian Baxter 460 1.3
Independent Leslie Bory 53 0.2
Independent Kevin Clarke 89 0.3
Green Party John Deverell 1,027 3.0
Libertarian Judi Falardeau 250 0.7
Liberal Chrystia Freeland 17,081 49.1
NDP-New Democratic Party Linda McQuaig 12,643 36.4
Online Party Michael Nicula 44 0.1
Conservative Geoff Pollock 3,024 8.7
Independent John “The Engineer” Turmel 75 0.2
Independent Bahman Yazdanfar 29 0.1
Total number of valid votes: 34,775
Polls reporting: 268/268 Voter turnout: 34,775 of 91,612 registered electors (38.0%)
The number of registered electors shown in this table does not include electors who registered on election day.

Preliminary Results
Provencher Last updated: 00:21 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes
NDP-New Democratic Party Natalie Courcelles Beaudry 1,837 8.2
Conservative Ted Falk 13,021 58.1
Green Party Janine Gibson 849 3.8
Liberal Terry Hayward 6,706 29.9
Total number of valid votes: 22,413
Polls reporting: 195/195 Voter turnout: 22,413 of 66,624 registered electors (33.6%)
The number of registered electors shown in this table does not include electors who registered on election day.

Preliminary Results
Brandon–Souris Last updated: 01:03 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes
Liberal Rolf Dinsdale 11,814 42.7
Libertarian Frank William James Godon 271 1.0
Conservative Larry Maguire 12,205 44.1
Green Party David Michael Neufeld 1,354 4.9
NDP-New Democratic Party Cory Szczepanski 2,037 7.4
Total number of valid votes: 27,681
Polls reporting: 210/210 Voter turnout: 27,681 of 61,910 registered electors (44.7%)
The number of registered electors shown in this table does not include electors who registered on election day.

Preliminary Results
Bourassa Last updated: 01:29 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes
Liberal Emmanuel Dubourg 8,767 48.1
Bloc Québécois Daniel Duranleau 2,387 13.1
Rhinoceros Serge Lavoie 140 0.8
Conservative Rida Mahmoud 852 4.7
NDP-New Democratic Party Stéphane Moraille 5,716 31.4
Green Party Danny Polifroni 368 2.0
Total number of valid votes: 18,230
Polls reporting: 204/204 Voter turnout: 18,230 of 69,527 registered electors (26.2%)
The number of registered electors shown in this table does not include electors who registered on election day.

So it would appear that the Liberals have captured Toronto Centre and Bourassa, seats they already held and the Conservatives have held on to Provencher and Brandon-Souris but the Liberals have greatly improved their vote in Brandon -Souris perhaps because of Rolf Dinsdale and the popularity of the Dinsdale brand in Brandon as much as Justin Trudeau.

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About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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