Liberals win unexpected solid majority in Canadian election: 184 seats to 99 for Harper Conservatives , 44 for Mulcair’s New Democrats , to 10 for Duceppe’s Bloc québécois with 1 for May’s Greens.

The Canadian election delivered a stunning majority Liberal Government much to the surprise of many Canadian pollsters and pundits. There were two final polls conducted on the Sunday before the election which accurately predicted the vote split among the top three parties but didn’t fully capture the extent of the seat sweep for the Liberals. Mr.Harper’s Conservatives were the biggest losers of the night falling from 166 seats to a mere 99 seats after the dust had cleared. The Liberals captured 184 seats and 39.5 % of the popular vote while the Opposition New Democrats who had hoped to improve their seat total of 104 were heavily defeated in both Québec and Ontario winning only 44 seats in total, of which only 16 remained in Québec and 8 in Ontario . They previously had held 59 in Québec and 22 in Ontario. The NDP won a total of  14 seats in B.C. and added two in Manitoba and one in Alberta and 2 in Saskatchewan. They were totally shut out in the Atlantic region where the Liberals swept all 32 of the seats.The Liberals won 40 seats in Quebec and 80 in Ontario plus 17 in BC and 14 in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. They clearly benefited from the widespread desire to defeat the Harper government, and from the progressive nature of their platform including its Keynesian infrastructure investment proposals as well as the attractive personal campaign of their leader Justin Trudeau who against all the odds had fought an excellent campaign and triumphed over the nasty  Tory attack ads.As the fog cleared from the election campaign and Canadians could see the results a large majority of Canadians breathed a sigh of relief that the long election campaign was over, that the Harper conservatives had lost power and that we had a new youthful prime minister dedicated to restoring Canada’s place in the world and fighting unemployment and austerity and restoring better and fairer economic growth in a more environmentally sound way. Except for our conservative friends and neighbours it was a good way to begin the week. Conservatives and New Democrats will need a period of reflection about how and why they lost as badly as they did and then set about the task of rebuilding their parties. Conservatives and democratic socialist New Democrats should remember that Keynes’s ideas were never antithetical to their basic beliefs since Keynes although a Liberal also was happy to give advice to the Labour party and his publisher was Harold Macmillan a future Conservative Prime Minister of Great Britain. (See Ewen Green, The Conservative Party and Keynes, in H.H.Green&D.M.Turner, The Strange Survival of Liberal England:Political Leaders,Moral Values and the Reception of Economic Debate, Cambridge University Press, 2007, p.198.)


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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