Angus Reid has released what is now the most recent poll in Québec’s election on the eve of this critical election with numbers that suggest the Liberals are likely to win overall in a close race with the CAQ and a shrinking PQ in many predominately francophone ridings. The results are as follows. Overall the Liberals have 39 %; the PQ 27 %; the CAQ 25 % and QS 7 %. Among francophones the race is a very close horse race with the PQ at 31 %, the PLQ at 30 % and the CAQ at 28 %.
In such three way races the results are unpredictable but the Liberals should be very competitive in such vote splits and win their fair share of these seats which when added to the large number of seats they will win in Western Québec and greater Montreal should deliver them at the very least a strong minority government. If the vote splits are more favourable it will be a majority.