There have been three new polls in the Quebec election which suggest that Liberals are definitely ahead in voter intentions. The first of these polls was conducted among Francophone voters only. It shows the PQ with 36 % of the prospective vote; the Liberals with 29 %; the CAQ with 24 % and Québec solidaire with 14 %. all among francophones who constitute 78 % of all voter.
But we can presume that the situation is radically different among the anglophone voters who are 7.7 % of all voters and also rather different among multicultural allophone voters who constitute 12.7 % of all voters. Once we take these votes into account by making the following assumptions : among anglophones the Liberals will capture at least 80 to 90 % of the vote. Among allophones we assume that the Liberals will capture 70 % of the vote. The PQ will take 10 % or less of the allophone vote, the CAQ 20 %.
Recalculating the overall percentages adds just 2 % points to the PQ vote so their final vote will be if the poll holds on election day about 30 %. The Liberals on the other hand would end up with 24 % +7 % points from the anglophones equals 31 % + 8.4 % points from allophones for a total of 39.4 %. The CAQ would receive 19.2 +2.4 %plus whatever small percentage of anglophone vote for the CAQ So their total would about 21.6 %
Reinforcing this data are two new polls just released in the past two days. A CTV internet poll done by Ipsos Reid with 1012 participants has the PLQ- the Quebec Liberal party -at 37 %, the PQ at 28 %, the CAQ 19 % and Quebec solidaire at 13 %. 30 % are still undecided.
A Forum poll with a proper random sample of 854 people and a margin of error of 3 % 19 times out of 20 has the Liberals or PLQ at 41 %, the PQ at 29%, the CAQ at 19 %, Québec solidaire at 10.1 %.
An earlier Léger internet poll with 3692 participants had the PLQ at 40 %, the PQ at 33 % the CAQ at 15 % and Québec solidaire at 9 % the Greens at 1 and Option Nationale at 1 %.
If these sorts of percentages hold on election day the odds are strongly in favour of either a small Liberal majority government or perhaps a several seat less Liberal minority government. But even a PQ minority government , though very unlikely is a possible outcome depending on the vote split.
As all politicians know and most Québecers the only true poll that counts is the one on election day.