The late Robert Mackenzie a Canadian political scientist who made his career in London introduced a cute technique for measuring the liklihood of a given constituency falling into a different party’s hands on election day. So if the swing from the Tories to Labour was 5 percentage points, as a rule of thumb you grouped all those constituencies where the margin of victory in the last election was 5% points or less of the Tories over Labour as ones highly likely to switch to the Labour party on election night. Using the same principle and using the possibility that the swing in the average of the polls shows a Liberal gain of almost ten percentage points from the CAQ most of it going to the Liberals and the PQ gaining about 3 % points from last time there are a total of at least fifteen ridings where the Liberals may well pick up additional seats over last time. These are seats mostly in the Quebec city area but also a few in the Montreal area, in Laval and on both the south and north shore and in the Gatineau and north. They are as follows:
With a five percent swing to the Liberals from the CAQ and no serious swing to the PQ from the CAQ ,that is, no more than 2-3 % points there are 8 ridings that the Liberal party could pick up. If the swing is 10 % there are 7 or 8 more that will be in play.
The 5 % swing ridings are Montmorency in Quebec city region where the CAQ won it with 38.2 % of the vote compared to Liberals 33.24 % ,the PQ 20.5 % the QS 3.4 %.
Charlebourg CAQ 36.9 %, PLQ, 34.1 %, PQ 21.4 %, QS 3.9 %.
Vanier La Rivière CAQ 37.9 %, PLQ 35 %, PQ 21.4%, QS 3.9 %
in Gatineau north western Quebec Abitibi east PQ 38.4% PLQ 34.85, CAQ 18.5 % QS 4.8 %
St. Francois, south shore P Q 36.4%, PLQ 36.14%, CAQ 18.1%, QS 5%.
Port Neuf CAQ 40.7 %, PLQ 33.5 %, PQ 18.0% QS 3.01 %
Montreal south shore La Prairie CAQ 32.7, PQ 32.4,PLQ 27.4 QS 3.5
Laval des Rapides PQ 37.85, PLQ 32.8 CAQ 21.7%, QS 4.13%
Note: the percentages are party results in these ridings in the 2012 election. PLQ Liberal party of Québec; PQ Parti Québecois; CAQ Coalition Avenir Québec;QS Québec Solidaire.)
If the swing is closer to 10 % then an additional 6-7 ridings come into play these are Cremazie in Montreal, Ste. Rose in Laval, Groulx, north of Laval, Taschereau in Quebec city area, Arthabaska south shore of St. Lawrence east of
Trois Rivières, Ungava northern Québec , Rouyn Noranda north west Québec and Nicolet Becancour between Montréal and Québec city on south shore.Of these 8, Ungava and Rouyn Noranda because of their history of strong support for the PQ seem less likely to be captured by the Liberals. Eight of these ridings would be losses from the PQ bloc of seats seven would come from the CAQ.