Latest Québec election poll shows sharp rise in Liberal intended vote:Margin over PQ grows to more than 12 % points

There have been several polls in the last three days which show the Liberal likely vote share rising while that of the PQ has been falling. Three of these polls are internet samples from an on line affinity group of people willing to act as a focus group and weighted to reflect the actual population but without a statistical margin of error because of the problem of lack of randomness in the sample selected. So the results are not  very reliable. However yesterday the Toronto Star published a Forum poll with a large random sample of  1650 potential voters which showed a sharp rise in those who said they would vote Liberal45% as opposed to a drop in those who would vote for the PQ, 32%. The results would yield if they held on election day at the 95 % confidence interval very likely a clear Liberal majority of well over 70 seats (up from 51 they currently hold) in the 125 seat National assembly. The PQ would be reduced to as few as 43 seats from the 54 they now hold with 2 each for the CAQ and Québec solidaire.If this holds on election day it would be a devastating defeat for the PQ  and its radical nationalist agenda based on the divisive identity politics of the charter of values  and a stubborn insistence on a new third referendum despite the wishes of a clear majority of Québecers not to hold one anytime in the near future.Most people’s priorities are health care, the economy, jobs, education and restoring prosperity. The PQ may well pay a big price for having ignored this reality.

The other polls which are internet polls show the following results.

Poll                        date        no.polled     PQ       Lib     CAQ     Québec solidaire

Ipsos Reid CTV  03 14-18th   810              33%    40%       14%           9 %


CROP/La Presse 03 12-16th   1400           36%     39%          13%            10%


Léger/Globe        03  11-13th  1205            37 %     37%      14%         9%

Le Devoir


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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