There have been several polls in the last three days which show the Liberal likely vote share rising while that of the PQ has been falling. Three of these polls are internet samples from an on line affinity group of people willing to act as a focus group and weighted to reflect the actual population but without a statistical margin of error because of the problem of lack of randomness in the sample selected. So the results are not very reliable. However yesterday the Toronto Star published a Forum poll with a large random sample of 1650 potential voters which showed a sharp rise in those who said they would vote Liberal45% as opposed to a drop in those who would vote for the PQ, 32%. The results would yield if they held on election day at the 95 % confidence interval very likely a clear Liberal majority of well over 70 seats (up from 51 they currently hold) in the 125 seat National assembly. The PQ would be reduced to as few as 43 seats from the 54 they now hold with 2 each for the CAQ and Québec solidaire.If this holds on election day it would be a devastating defeat for the PQ and its radical nationalist agenda based on the divisive identity politics of the charter of values and a stubborn insistence on a new third referendum despite the wishes of a clear majority of Québecers not to hold one anytime in the near future.Most people’s priorities are health care, the economy, jobs, education and restoring prosperity. The PQ may well pay a big price for having ignored this reality.
The other polls which are internet polls show the following results.
Poll date no.polled PQ Lib CAQ Québec solidaire
Ipsos Reid CTV 03 14-18th 810 33% 40% 14% 9 %
CROP/La Presse 03 12-16th 1400 36% 39% 13% 10%
Léger/Globe 03 11-13th 1205 37 % 37% 14% 9%