Anna Schwartz co-author with Milton Friedman of A monetary history of the United States dies at 96

One of the great economists of the past century Anna Schwartz(Jacobson) author of many influential books and studies has passed away after a long and enriching life at 96. Along with Milton Friedman she wrote the monumental study A monetary history of the United States, 1867-1960  published in 1963 which had enormous influence over generations of monetarist leaning economists and  helped Friedman win  the Nobel prize which many say  should have been shared with her. It is a substantial work loaded with statistical analysis, economic history and monetary policy insights. For Keynesians it is a controversial work but there is no doubt it is a major achievement of scholarship even if one questions some of its assertions and conclusions. I once at a conference at McGill had the pleasure of listening to Dr.Schwartz in person and she was a formidable analyst. My condolences to her family and friends.

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Canadian inflation rate falls to 1.2 %:core inflation 1.8 %

Statistics Canada announce the most recent  inflation rate . It shows that in May the rate overall fell on an annualized basis to 1.2 % . There is clearly absolutely no reason to increase interest rates. Core inflation which strips out energy and food costs was only 1.8 %. The Bank of Canada needs to concentrate on a slowing economy and the risk of a rise in unemployment. The inflation frontier is not a problem for the time being.

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Greek politicians form new government;Germany may agree to extend austerity timetable.

New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has been sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Greece. His government will receive the backing of Pasok and the Democratic left giving it a clear parliamentary majority of 179 seats out of 300. However, the precise terms on which Pasok and the Democratic left have joined the coalition are still not completely clear. Both parties seem reluctant to take cabinet seats and are still seeking a needed reduction in the harshness of the austerity they have signed on to.

In the case of Pasok there was according to the Athens press a strong internal debate about their senior politicians not taking cabinet posts while the Democratic Left has definitely decided not to enter the cabinet. Economic conditions continue to worsen in Greece and the GDP is expected to shrink by a further 7 % this year. How far their needs can be accommodated remain unclear since aside from hinting at giving Greece more time to repay its loans the German Chancellor remains strongly opposed to other needed measures. However, it appears that European officials are inclined to the appearance of greater flexibility . How substantive these changes will be remains to be seen. For its part Syriza continued to critique the neo-liberal basis of the austerity policies suggesting that the new government was not prepared to go far enough in demanding renegotiation of the terms.

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Final Greek Results Reveal Very Close Election

With 99.83 % of the votes counted here are the results of the Greek election. New Democracy received 29.66% of the vote and will get 128 seats because of the 50 seat bonus for finishing first. Its total vote was 1,824,342 . In second place not far behind was Syriza with 26.89 % of the vote and 71 seats. Its total vote was 1,653,994. In third place with 12.28% of the vote was Pasok with 755,249. It will have 33 seats.

In fourth place was the liberal independent Greeks party with 7.51% and 20 seats and 462,175 votes.  In fifth place was the extremist New Dawn party with 6.92 % of vote and 18 seats and  425,792 votes. The democratic left party has 6.25% and 17 seats and 384,674 votes. The communists have 4.5% of the vote, 12 seats and 277,015 votes.

Given these results New Democracy will seek a coalition with Pasok supported perhaps by the Democratic left. It will be a strange coalition made up of two parties who signed on to austerity despite their deep ideological differences. How long it will last is not clear. What more austerity it will demand of the Greek population will be critical to its survival. The opposition led by Syriza promises to be a strong critic of these policies It will have the backing of its electorate as well as that which voted for the the anti austerity positions advocated by several of the smaller parties. The Greek crisis is far from completely resolved.

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New exit poll New Democracy 28-30 %slightly ahead of Syrizia 27-28.5 %:partial official results show similar trend

It looks increasingly like New Democracy will finish a narrow first over Syriza with 28-30 % of the vote ,Pasok far behind  at 13 % and the other small parties including the right wing extremist party, New Dawn at under 8 %.

In France exit polls suggest that François Hollande’s party will capture a majority of the Assembly’s seats. Marine Le Pen may also be headed to a narrow defeat in Pas De Calais. Ségolène Royal may also be defeated in her constituency of La Rochelle a loss which will cause  some controversy in the Socialist party.

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Greek election a dead heat New Democracy and Syriza neck and neck in exit polls

Exit polls which sample 80 % of those who voted show New Democracy at 27-30.5 % and Syriza at 27-30 %. Pasok is at 10-12 %. The other parties including the extremist right wing party New Dawn, the communists, the liberal Democratic Greeks, and the small democratic left party are all below 7.5 % each. The polls have now closed and counting is underway.

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The Greek election, the euro and the necessity to escape austerity

We are on the eve of the second election in Greece and many establishment voices in a co-ordinated campaign are raising the prospect of total disaster should the Greek electorate choose the left wing coalition Syriza which while committed to keeping the euro is also determined to renegotiate the terms of the financial bailout. Its critics argue that this is a totally unrealistic agenda which promises to plunge Greece into disaster. But what exactly do these establishment voices offer to Greece as an alternative. The answer for the moment is unequivocally dogmatic. More of the same horrible and counterproductive austerity that has led Greece into deep economic depression. Learning absolutely nothing from the events of the great depression, the rise of fascism  and the catastrophe of the second world war these established conservative voices insist that all will be well for Greece if it sticks to the euro and above all sticks to the program of privatization, welfare state cuts and other neo-liberal and neo-con policy prescriptions. Greece has tried this approach for the last year and what has been the result. Not the drop in wages and rise in employment that these politicians and their economic advisers have claimed would be the result but the deepening of the depression.

It is absolutely incredible that this old discredited approach from the 1930s is back as cutting edge policy advice. Greece cannot recover under conditions of austerity.Real wages cannot fall far enough to restore employment without doing irreparable harm to Greek society. These conditions need to be lifted and softened.

There is another way that would encourage growth and recovery and restore hope. I have explained it several times.  But few are  listening.   Buy a significant chunk of the Greek debt through the European central bank. Suspend the interest payment for a limited period of time.Soften the austerity constraints. Encourage stimulus and growth through stimulating aggregate demand, eliminating corruption , ensuring that where ever possible taxes are paid , introduce specially targeted employment programs in infrastructure , education, and local enterprise. Create a secondary LETS or drachma employment currency as part of rebuilding  social infrastructure.Set up a fund in which other European partners can participate which has as its objective hiring unemployed Greeks and restoring hope and some income. Allow employers to pay new hires in this currency or a combination of it and the euro to stimulate trade and commerce as recovery begins. Develop a chain of drachma employment banks that permit accounts in this secondary currency. Adjust welfare benefits to realistic levels over a gradual time period.

Another way is possible for  the old way does not work.

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Spanish banks bail out, French parliamentary elections, Unemployment rises in Europe,Canadian unemployment stable but still too elevated.

A lot of information to process. Most of it not good. The best although mixed news comes from France where the first round of the parliamentary elections showed a strong showing by Francois Hollande’s socialist party which garnered about 29.35% of the vote. But the conservative former governing UMP also managed close to the the same share 27.12 % and more disturbing Le Pen’s National front got over 13.6 % of the vote including over 42 % of the vote in her home constituency in the 11th district Henin-Beaumont of Pas de Calais where she finished well ahead of  Jean-Luc Mélenchon the candiate of the radical left who is now eliminated in the second round because he finished a close third behind the PS candidate and Marine Le Pen. Mélenchon’s coalition of the left received 6.9 % of the total national vote. But in Henin-Beaumont he scored 21.5 % as compared to Phillipe Kemel of the socialists who receive 23.5 % of the vote. Le Pen received 42.4 % .

The turnout was down at 57 %. Because the socialist party candidate is not well known there is a real danger he will lose to Le Pen in the second round and she will be elected to Parliament. Nevertheless because nationally the ecologists receive 6.3 % of the vote, other small left parties 3.6% the centrist Mo-Dems 2.3% there is a reasonable chance for François Hollande to win a narrow parliamentary majority in the second round. A total of 26.4 million people voted.

The Spanish banking crisis has received a temporary reprieve with the bailout with European funds of the Spanish banking sector. However, while this is a good thing it does little to address the problem  of the deep recession that Spain finds itself trapped in . Although IMF funds are not directly involved the IMF will be involved in supervising their use. After a brief rally Spanish sovereign bonds fell in price. Unemployment in Spain has hit over 24 % and there is little sign of likely improvement in the coming months without a major stimulus from both monetary and fiscal policy. The Eurozone leaders continue to argue over the degree to which they want to have a real monetary union with a system of backstopping euro denominated debt and a degree of fiscal integration.

The rise in Spanish unemployment was part of the worrying report from Eurostat which shows that the euro zone remains mired in high unemployment on account of its obsession with austerity. The rate rose to 11 % in the euro zone area. It was 21.7 % in Greece, 24.3 % in Spain, 10.2 % in France and Italy,  and 8.1 % in the U.K. The youth unemployment rate for those under 25 rose to 52. 7 % in Greece and 51.5 % in Spain. In Canada the unemployment rate held steady at 7.3 %. This is still too high a rate as unemployment in Ontario was 7.8% and also 7.8 % in Quebec. These are the two most populous provinces and the location of core manufacturing industries. In the light of all that is happening in the global economy and at this rate of unemployment  it would be unwise for the central bank to increase interest rates despite their expressed interest in doing so.

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Alvin Hansen, the right amount of money, deficit finance and the search for full employment.

Alvin  Hansen establishes early in his work, Monetary Theory and Fiscal policy that the power to create money is a force to be reckoned with. In the nineteenth century in the U.S.the private banks at the behest of their business clientele and owners arranged for the monetization of the credit notes they had issued to their customers. Privately issued bills of exchange were exchanged for bank notes. By this process Hansen explains the banks were set up to manufacture money. As the American economy expanded and the frontier pushed westward  this private source of money expanded as banks were created  under the free banking movement. As such, it became clear that there was a need to create a supply of money but not to create so much that it would lose most of its value. some degree of regulation was required. however, ‘extreme monetary conservatives (were)as mistaken as the monetary cranks….what (was) required (was) temperance -the pursuit of Aristotle’s golden mean applied to monetary management…. Money is an invaluable , but nonetheless dangerous invention. The trick was to permit enterprise through privately owned banks to manufacture its own money, yet to hold the privilege within bounds.” (p.18) Hansen goes on to explain this is how the right to issue money which was clearly a governmental perogative was delegated in the nineteenth century by the federal government to the private banks.  Still paper money and check book money became the subject of a debate as to how much of it should be issued in order to ensure that the economy could expand but an inflationary bubble could be avoided. Gold and silver coining was not viewed in the same sort of way because of the difficulty of increasing supplies through the mining process.  (p.19)

There was a search on the part of experts including those in the business community for some sort of automatic formula that could control the supply of paper money so that enough was issued but not too much. Over time a formula developed that linked the supply of paper money to that that was necessary to finance current production through bills of exchange and loans for production of goods.”Only the monetization of private credit could supply  the efficient circulating medium needed to effect the transactions arising from an expanding economy.” In such a fashion it was thought the banking or commercial loan system could be self regulating and also supply the right amount of money.

Over time out of the debate between the banking principle school and the currency school the principle of convertibility arose whereby it was considered necessary that the banks stood ready to exchange standard bank notes for bank created money. (p.22) This then evolved with creation of a central bank into the principle that the banks would stand ready to pay out ”currency central bank notes and Treasury currency to any depositer.” Over time a convention arose that the banks could pay out currency in some multiple of their holdings of gold and legal tender on deposit with the central bank.

Until the modern and debatable innovation of capital adequacy and risk rules as a substitute for fractional reserves central banks like the Federal Reserve required commercial banks to maintain a legal ratio of reserves on deposit with the Federal Reserve banks. This ratio imposed a limit upon the expansion of bank credit and money issuance. Hansen then discusses the 100 % money controversy . This was a proposal to prohibit the commercial banks from issuing money. Instead under the scheme only the Federal Reserve would have the power to issue money. Demand deposits would always have to be precisely balanced by member bank reserves and vault cash.Time and savings deposits would no longer be considered cash.

Milton Friedman at one point supported the notion of 100 % money because he believed it would ensure that the Fed and the treasury together could then ensure an adequate supply of currency in the system . But 100 % money is controversial , and clearly not favoured by the banking community.  The  Fed  delegates the power to create money by allowing the banks to loan out deposits which for the overall system leads to a multiple on balance of the deposit base being created as money. The Fed stands at the base of this system.

Hansen acknowleges this fact but his discussion of 100 % money demystifies the process.More importantly he demonstrates that there is ample justification for the Fed to purchase government debt when the circumstances demand it.

”Under the 100 % plan individuals and business firms could not acquire new money by borrowing from commercial banks. But the monetary authorities(meaning both the Federal reserve System and the Treasury) could put new money in their hands (1) by Federal Reserve purchases of U.S. securities in the open market, and (2) by creating a government deficit financed by the Federal Reserve banks.”( P.27) This is an important insight into the evolution of the money creation process and its relationship to fiscal policy  even if we reject the 100 % money system.

The latest numbers on unemployment are disappointing in the U.S. and confirm what I and others have been saying about the foolishness of austerity as a policy choice in the period after a crash and deep recession. Unemployment rose in Europe to 11.9 % in the euro zone but fell in Germany to 5.4 %. In the U.S. it rose by a tenth of a percent as more discouraged workers rejoined the labour force. It now stands at 8.2 % . More on these events tomorrow.

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Monetary theory and fiscal policy:the insights of Alvin Hansen

One of the greatest interpreters of J.M.Keynes was the American economist Alvin Hansen whose A Guide to Keynes became a staple for beginning macro students during the 1950s and sixties. Hansen made several important errors of interpretation and the IS LM apparatus is named after him and John Hicks. As I have argued on a number of occasions  the linear Keynesian cross and the IS LM apparatus ignores the curvilinear core of Keynes’s analysis and the central role of uncertainty in the investment process but it is still useful on other aspects of Keynes’s approach. Less well known than A Guide To Keynes  is Hansen’s 1949 publication Monetary theory and fiscal policy which presents a very insightful analysis of how monetary theory, the quantity theory and Keynes’s breakthrough are inter- connected. I propose over several blog posts to explore aspects of this seminal work to see what we can uncover that still is of use in puzzling our way through the paradoxes of the current crisis and recovery.

Hansen’s work begins with a very perceptive remark by the editor, the Keynesian Seymour Harris that Hansen “shows the importance of money in the theory of output as a whole.” (p.ix) Hansen was Professor of Political Economy at Harvard and had written extensively on business cycles, secular stagnation and the depression before he became an advocate  of Keynes’s analysis. He played a major role in spreading Keynes’s insights throughout the U.S. and Canada.

Hansen begins by exploring the relationship of the quantity of money that the public wishes to hold as  a proportion of the money income. This was originally in Alfred Marshall’s economics known by the symbol k as in M=kY.

A number of earlier economists including  Petty,Hume, and Locke estimated k and explored why money had increased far more than prices implying that the demand for holding money had increased as market capitalism had evolved.

Marshall developed the analysis as M=kY+k’A in which M was money that is currency plus demand and time deposits and A the aggregate value of assets , k as the fraction of income they wish to hold as money and k’ the fraction of assets which people prefer to hold as money. Hansen points out that Marshall’s use of A for assets and k’ the proportion of assets that people wish to hold as cash is still quite useful , particularly in an economy in which finance capital is dominant.(pp2-3) Hansen  introduces a table which covers the years 1800 to 1947 which shows the U.S. national income, total deposits and currrency i.e. M2 and k the ratio of money to income for selected years during this period. It shows k clearly and steadily rising over these 147 years from 0.05 in 1800 to 0.51 in 1900 to 0.81 in 1947. What is very interesting is that in 2012 this ratio k is about 0.78 . Hansen also traces the price trend over these years and discovers that there are two periods of rising prices 1840-1870 and 1900-1947 and two of falling prices 1800-1840 and 1870-1900. Yet during each of these periods the money supply kept on expanding.

” These data(according to Hansen) suggest that there is no invariant relation of money income to the money supply. The quantity of money may indeed affect the level of income but the connection is a tenuous one.” (p.6) Hansen also presents data on real income per capita which shows that it grew steadily in 1926 dollars from 132 in 1800 to 940 in 1947.(p.7) Over the past few years in the U.S. the real per capita income of the bulk of the population has not increased at all.In fact overall real per capita disposable income has fallen. This fact and the high unemployment which accompanies it is at the heart of the current crisis.

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