No deal crash out of EU looking very likely unless article 50 is extended until summer

It is now two months since I last posted on Brexit and Prime Minister May‘s so far unsuccessful strategy of getting her version of a somewhat backstop amended deal past Parliament and ready for presentation to Brussels and the EU leadership. The Prime minister has rejected Jeremy Corbyn‘s proposal of Brexit within the EU customs union as a non starter and the EU has continued to resist any effort to amend the original deal. Jeremy Corbyy and the Labour Party leadership has agreed to talks with the Prime Minister but thus far they have not led to an agreement. Those who back a second ‘‘peoples‘‘ vote now that the harsh terms and consequences of Brexit are much better understood and clarified have made some progress with Mr.Corbyn who no longer does not rule out such a vote should he have the opportunity to call one but it is still a long shot outcome perhaps because both the Labour and Conservative parties are divided on the question. The EU for its part probably would welcome such a vote on the assumption that the remain side would win a second vote.

So with less than two full months to go crashing out without a deal looks more likely. Although there is probably a solid majority of MPs from all the parties who would oppose such an outcome and would rather abandon the ‘‘game of chicken‘‘ bargaining strategy and opt for a postponement and extension of article 50.

Whatever the outcome the UK needs to broaden its trade strategy if they are not in the customs union and negotiate as many reciprocal trade agreements as are possible as well as return to Keynes style stimulation of the economy to help speed recovery from the likely negative consequences of a harsh Brexit.


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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