Potentially a tie despite the gap in the national polls: state by state polls suggest a very close race

The latest state by state polling results in the US presidential race suggest that on the eve of the election there is a plausible scenario which would result in one toss up state determining the election or even more extraordinary there would be a tie throwing the election to the House of Representatives.If we divide up the toss-up states that is those where the difference in the polls is under 5 % as follows :Trump wins North Carolina 15 electoral college votes; Florida 29; Maine district 2 1; Iowa 6; Ohio 18; Arizona 11; Georgia 16; His total incuding all the safe states is 260 electoral college votes. Hillary wins New Hampshire 4; Nevada 6; Pennsylvania 20; New Mexico 5; Maine statewide 2;District one ,1 ;Michigan 16; Virginia 13; for a total including Democrat safe states of 269 electoral college votes. Only the state of Colorado remains with 9 electoral college votes which if Trump wins the two candidates will be tied at 269 votes each ! This is only one scenario but its a plausible one and it indicates how close the election may be.


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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