Québec election:Liberals vulnerable in 23 ridings;7 to the CAQ,16 to PQ

The latest polling numbers continue to show the PQ narrowly ahead of the Liberals with the CAQ in third position about 8 percentage points back. In the last election the Liberals captured 66 seats, the PQ 51 and the ADQ the predecessor to the CAQ 7. The Liberals received 42 % of the vote, the PQ 36 % and the ADQ/CAQ 13 %. The average of the latest polls shows the PQ at 33.1 %, the Liberals at 31.4 % and the CAQ at 24.4 %.

If these percentages hold up on election day then the Liberals will be losing 9.6 percentage points of their vote compared to the last election, the PQ 2.9 % and the CAQ will be gaining 11.4 percentage points. When we apply these trends on a constituency basis it is possible to identify 23 constituencies where the Liberal margin of victory was smaller than this decline in their vote and also in the case of 15 of these smaller than a diminished PQ vote. In 8 of the cases the CAQ if it receives a boost in its vote equivalent to the increase in its poll numbers will be the party that will defeat the Liberals. So if we assume that this outcome is likely to occur in 2/3 of the ridings we have identified that would result in the Liberals losing ten seats to the PQ and 5-6 seats to the CAQ. The PQ would then capture 61 seats, the CAQ 12-13 and the Liberals 50-51. Quebec Solidaire seems likely to win 1 seat perhaps capturing a second seat from the PQ reducing their number to 60.A majority in the Québec national assembly is 63 seats. A very close election indeed.


About haroldchorneyeconomist

I am Professor of political economy at Concordia university in Montréal, Québec, Canada. I received my B.A.Hons (econ.&poli sci) from the University of Manitoba. I also completed my M.A. degree in economics there. Went on to spend two years at the London School of Economics as a Ph.D. student in economics and then completed my Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Toronto. Was named a John W.Dafoe fellow, a CMHC fellow and a Canada Council fellow. I also was named a Woodrow Wilson fellow in 1968 after completing my first class honours undergraduate degree. Worked as an economist in the area of education, labour economics and as the senior economist with the Manitoba Housing and Renewal Corporation for the Government of Manitoba from 1972 to 1978. I also have worked as an economic consultant for MDT socio-economic consultants and have been consulted on urban planning, health policy, linguistic duality and public sector finance questions by the governments of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, Ontario and the Federal government of Canada. I have also been consulted by senior leaders of the British Labour party, MPs from the Progressive Conservative party, the Liberal party and the New Democrats on economic policy questions. Members of the Government of France under the Presidency of Francois Mitterand discussed my work on public sector deficits. I have also run for elected office at the municipal level. I first began to write about quantitative easing as a useful policy option during the early 1980s.
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