Nathan Cullen has run an excellent campaign but fallen just short on the third ballot and so now drops off the ballot with the Convention having a clear choice between two somewhat different visions of the role of the NDP in national politics. Mulcair to win has to obtain as few as one quarter of the Cullen vote to win. But Topp can win if he captures about 11,544 of Cullen’s vote. Probably a very difficult feat but not impossible. Knowing New Democrats as I do but also given the nature of the voting system with the bulk of the votes already cast in the advance vote it will be a difficult moment for the social democratic core of the party to easily accept at least initially the prospect of a Mulcair victory.
Cullen’s vote was 15, 426 votes out of a total of 62,728 votes cast. Mulcair thus needs 31,365 votes to win. since he achieved 27,480 votes on the third ballot to win he only needs an additional 3885 votes on the final ballot assuming the total vote number stays the same and Mulcair loses no votes from his vote total in the third round. Topp on the other hand needs 11544 votes from the Cullen total to win making the same assumptions about the vote total and his own vote. As I say a very unlikely but not impossible task.