The latest polling numbers continue to show the PQ narrowly ahead of the Liberals with the CAQ in third position about 8 percentage points back. In the last election the Liberals captured 66 seats, the PQ 51 and the ADQ the predecessor to the CAQ 7. The Liberals received 42 % of the vote, the PQ 36 % and the ADQ/CAQ 13 %. The average of the latest polls shows the PQ at 33.1 %, the Liberals at 31.4 % and the CAQ at 24.4 %.
If these percentages hold up on election day then the Liberals will be losing 9.6 percentage points of their vote compared to the last election, the PQ 2.9 % and the CAQ will be gaining 11.4 percentage points. When we apply these trends on a constituency basis it is possible to identify 23 constituencies where the Liberal margin of victory was smaller than this decline in their vote and also in the case of 15 of these smaller than a diminished PQ vote. In 8 of the cases the CAQ if it receives a boost in its vote equivalent to the increase in its poll numbers will be the party that will defeat the Liberals. So if we assume that this outcome is likely to occur in 2/3 of the ridings we have identified that would result in the Liberals losing ten seats to the PQ and 5-6 seats to the CAQ. The PQ would then capture 61 seats, the CAQ 12-13 and the Liberals 50-51. Quebec Solidaire seems likely to win 1 seat perhaps capturing a second seat from the PQ reducing their number to 60.A majority in the Québec national assembly is 63 seats. A very close election indeed.